← Matchups

Massachusetts

MAC · 2-0 · power -3.1 · #218
Our numberMASS -1.4 no book has priced this game

Buffalo

MAC · 1-1 · power -3.4 · #221
Our side
MoneylineBUF to win ours 54%
Projected score 28–26 MASS – BUF
2026-10-17 · kickoff TBD Broadview Stadium · Buffalo, NY MAC game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Buffalo lead 10–2 · 12 meetings since 1964
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Buffalo Bulls 194 ranks
Massachusetts Minutemen #246 rush offense Buffalo Bulls #52 run defense
Pass game edge Buffalo Bulls 151 ranks
Massachusetts Minutemen #257 pass offense Buffalo Bulls #106 pass defense
Run game even 23 ranks apart
Buffalo Bulls #245 rush offense Massachusetts Minutemen #222 run defense
Pass game edge Buffalo Bulls 82 ranks
Buffalo Bulls #182 pass offense Massachusetts Minutemen #264 pass defense
Massachusetts Minutemen Balanced · 51% run Ball-control Buffalo Bulls Balanced · 46% run Avg pace
Joe Harasymiak · 0-12 Pete Lembo · 17-20 · defense-minded

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Massachusetts Minutemen
DB Jahmad Harmon 3 tkl · 3 INT #42 DB
QB William Watson III 349 pass yds · 4 TD · 0 INT #19 QB
DB Zeraun Daniel 12 tkl · 1 PD #225 DB
RB Elijah Faulkner 134 rush yds · 2 rec #133 RB
Buffalo Bulls
WR Chance Morrow 18 rec · 221 yds · 5 TD #6 WR
LB SaVeon Brown 16 tkl · 1.0 TFL #66 LB
LB Stevie Bracey 16 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #118 LB
DL Logan Goodwin 2 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #231 DL

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Massachusetts MinutemenMAC -3.1 -2.0 -1.1 #218
Buffalo BullsMAC -3.4 -3.1 -0.3 #221

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Massachusetts offense vs Buffalo defense-1.7 pts
Buffalo offense vs Massachusetts defense-2.0 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.