← Matchups

Rice

AAC · 1-1 · power +3.0 · #139
Our numberUNT -18.4 no book has priced this game

North Texas

AAC · 1-1 · power +20.8 · #32
Our side
MoneylineUNT to win ours 89%
Projected score 19–37 RICE – UNT
2026-11-07 · kickoff TBD DATCU Stadium · Denton, TX AAC game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series North Texas lead 9–5 · 14 meetings since 1988
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 4 ranks apart
Rice Owls #171 rush offense North Texas Mean Green #175 run defense
Pass game edge North Texas Mean Green 135 ranks
Rice Owls #218 pass offense North Texas Mean Green #83 pass defense
Run game edge North Texas Mean Green 206 ranks
North Texas Mean Green #11 rush offense Rice Owls #217 run defense
Pass game edge North Texas Mean Green 227 ranks
North Texas Mean Green #16 pass offense Rice Owls #243 pass defense
Rice Owls Run-heavy · 78% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 44 rush ypg North Texas Mean Green Balanced · 50% run Avg pace
Scott Abell · 5-8 Eric Morris · 22-16 · offense-minded

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Rice Owls
DL Chibby Nwajuaku 9 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #148 DL
DL AJ Brown 10 tkl · 0.5 TFL #157 DL
DL Braden Bays 7 tkl · 2.0 TFL #345 DL
RB Quinton Jackson 61 rush yds · 2 TD · 1 rec #224 RB
North Texas Mean Green
K Dominic De Freitas 6 FG · 6 XP · 24 pts #3 K
RB Jahiem White 185 rush yds · 2 TD · 9 rec #10 RB
DB CJ Coombes 16 tkl · 1 PD #149 DB
DL David Onuoha 9 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 1.5 TFL #169 DL

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Rice OwlsAAC +3.0 -4.4 +7.4 #139
North Texas Mean GreenAAC +20.8 +17.3 +3.6 #32

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Rice offense vs North Texas defense-8.0 pts
North Texas offense vs Rice defense+9.8 pts
Rest · context onlyAway team on 5 more days rest

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.