Our side
MoneylineTXST to win
ours 39%
Projected score
30–25
TXST – ORST
2026-11-07 · 10:30 PM
Reser Stadium · Corvallis, OR
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
First recorded meeting between these programs
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Texas State Bobcats
80 ranks
Texas State Bobcats #9 rush offense
Oregon State Beavers #89 run defense
Pass game
edge Texas State Bobcats
133 ranks
Texas State Bobcats #44 pass offense
Oregon State Beavers #177 pass defense
Run game
edge Texas State Bobcats
86 ranks
Oregon State Beavers #240 rush offense
Texas State Bobcats #154 run defense
Pass game
edge Texas State Bobcats
90 ranks
Oregon State Beavers #239 pass offense
Texas State Bobcats #149 pass defense
Texas State Bobcats
Run-heavy · 58% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 58 rush ypg
Oregon State Beavers
Balanced · 54% run
Avg pace
G.J. Kinne · 23-16 · offense-minded
Trent Bray · 5-14 · defense-minded
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Texas State Bobcats
DB
Ryan Nolan
17 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#26 DB
DB
Jayden Bradley
18 tkl
#126 DB
RB
Davian Jackson
128 rush yds · 2 TD · 1 rec
#80 RB
DL
Tymere Jackson
8 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.5 TFL
#201 DL
Oregon State Beavers
WR
Jesse Legree
13 rec · 376 yds · 3 TD
#3 WR
LB
Aiden Sullivan
19 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#8 LB
DB
Sailasa Vadrawale III
9 tkl · 3 PD · 1 INT
#55 DB
LB
Takari Hickle
12 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL
#95 LB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Texas State offense vs Oregon State defense+6.1 pts
Oregon State offense vs Texas State defense-0.3 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 1,712 mi
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.