Our side
MoneylineTXST to win
ours 61%
Projected score
27–31
USU – TXST
2026-10-24 · 7:30 PM
UFCU Stadium · San Marcos, TX
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Utah State lead
1–0
· 1 meeting since 2012
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Utah State Aggies
91 ranks
Utah State Aggies #63 rush offense
Texas State Bobcats #154 run defense
Pass game
even
23 ranks apart
Utah State Aggies #126 pass offense
Texas State Bobcats #149 pass defense
Run game
edge Texas State Bobcats
214 ranks
Texas State Bobcats #9 rush offense
Utah State Aggies #223 run defense
Pass game
even
17 ranks apart
Texas State Bobcats #44 pass offense
Utah State Aggies #61 pass defense
Utah State Aggies
Balanced · 51% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 61 rush ypg
Texas State Bobcats
Run-heavy · 58% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 58 rush ypg
Bronco Mendenhall · 56-56 · offense-minded
G.J. Kinne · 23-16 · offense-minded
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Utah State Aggies
DL
Carson Tujague
9 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL
#62 DL
WR
Eli Wood
12 rec · 143 yds · 2 TD
#55 WR
WR
Javon Robinson
6 rec · 131 yds · 1 TD
#163 WR
DB
Brevin Hamblin
10 tkl · 1 PD
#366 DB
Texas State Bobcats
DB
Ryan Nolan
17 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#26 DB
DB
Jayden Bradley
18 tkl
#126 DB
RB
Davian Jackson
128 rush yds · 2 TD · 1 rec
#80 RB
DL
Tymere Jackson
8 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.5 TFL
#201 DL
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Utah State offense vs Texas State defense+1.6 pts
Texas State offense vs Utah State defense+4.4 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 1,127 mi
Altitude · context only1,251 m lower than the visitor's home elevation
Rest · context onlyAway team on 6 more days rest
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.