← Matchups

Arizona

B12 · 1-1 (0-1 B12) · power +22.9 · #22
Our numberKSU -8.0 no book has priced this game

Kansas State

B12 · 2-0 · power +24.9 · #17
Our side
MoneylineKSU to win ours 59%
Projected score 22–30 ARIZ – KSU
2026-11-21 · kickoff TBD Bill Snyder Family Stadium · Manhattan, KS B12 game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Arizona lead 6–2–1 · 9 meetings since 1941
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Arizona Wildcats 87 ranks
Arizona Wildcats #65 rush offense Kansas State Wildcats #152 run defense
Pass game even 31 ranks apart
Arizona Wildcats #106 pass offense Kansas State Wildcats #75 pass defense
Run game even 24 ranks apart
Kansas State Wildcats #88 rush offense Arizona Wildcats #112 run defense
Pass game edge Arizona Wildcats 46 ranks
Kansas State Wildcats #124 pass offense Arizona Wildcats #78 pass defense
Arizona Wildcats Balanced · 51% run Avg pace Kansas State Wildcats Balanced · 57% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 40 rush ypg
Brent Brennan · 47-60 Chris Klieman · 54-34

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Arizona Wildcats
QB Noah Fifita 492 pass yds · 3 TD · 1 INT #42 QB
WR Giovanni Richardson 13 rec · 144 yds #162 WR
LB Chase Kennedy 9 tkl · 2.5 sacks · 2.5 TFL #182 LB
RB Kedrick Reescano 97 rush yds · 2 TD · 3 rec #152 RB
Kansas State Wildcats
RB Joe Jackson 106 rush yds · 1 TD · 6 rec #22 RB
WR Josh Manning 13 rec · 130 yds · 2 TD #51 WR
DL Wendell Gregory 7 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.5 TFL #121 DL
RB Rodney Fields Jr. 206 rush yds · 2 TD #55 RB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Arizona WildcatsB12 +22.9 +7.1 +15.8 #22
Kansas State WildcatsB12 +24.9 +15.7 +9.2 #17

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Arizona offense vs Kansas State defense-2.1 pts
Kansas State offense vs Arizona defense-0.1 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 937 mi
Altitude · context only413 m lower than the visitor's home elevation

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.