← Matchups

Kansas State

B12 · 2-0 · power +24.9 · #17
Our numberKSU -9.2 no book has priced this game

Cincinnati

B12 · 2-0 · power +16.3 · #51
Our side
MoneylineKSU to win ours 36%
Projected score 30–21 KSU – CIN
2026-09-26 · kickoff TBD Nippert Stadium · Cincinnati, OH B12 game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Cincinnati lead 4–3 · 7 meetings since 1951
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Kansas State Wildcats 97 ranks
Kansas State Wildcats #88 rush offense Cincinnati Bearcats #185 run defense
Pass game even 28 ranks apart
Kansas State Wildcats #124 pass offense Cincinnati Bearcats #152 pass defense
Run game edge Cincinnati Bearcats 125 ranks
Cincinnati Bearcats #27 rush offense Kansas State Wildcats #152 run defense
Pass game even 38 ranks apart
Cincinnati Bearcats #37 pass offense Kansas State Wildcats #75 pass defense
Kansas State Wildcats Balanced · 57% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 40 rush ypg Cincinnati Bearcats Balanced · 53% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 48 rush ypg
Chris Klieman · 54-34 Scott Satterfield · 80-57 · offense-minded

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Kansas State Wildcats
RB Joe Jackson 106 rush yds · 1 TD · 6 rec #22 RB
WR Josh Manning 13 rec · 130 yds · 2 TD #51 WR
DL Wendell Gregory 7 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.5 TFL #121 DL
RB Rodney Fields Jr. 206 rush yds · 2 TD #55 RB
Cincinnati Bearcats
RB Gi'Bran Payne 210 rush yds · 2 TD · 2 rec #70 RB
DL Josh Hough 7 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 1.5 TFL #206 DL
WR JV Gibson 9 rec · 133 yds · 2 TD #129 WR
LB Jonathan Thompson 14 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #144 LB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Kansas State WildcatsB12 +24.9 +15.7 +9.2 #17
Cincinnati BearcatsB12 +16.3 +8.9 +7.5 #51

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Kansas State offense vs Cincinnati defense+8.2 pts
Cincinnati offense vs Kansas State defense-0.3 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 646 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.