● Top projected winners
record starts at kickoff
The model's most-likely winners — a read, not a betting edge. Graded straight-up on the public record once games are played.
Ohio State B1G
Power +19.1 · #2
Ohio State -4.9
28–23
proj total 51.1 · 60%
2026-09-12 · 7:30 PM
Texas SEC
Power +11.8 · #22
Our number
Ohio State -4.9 · 51.1
The market
Texas -1.5 · 47.5
Win prob · ours vs book
40% vs 52%
Ohio State offense vs. Texas defense+0.7 pts
Texas offense vs. Ohio State defense-6.6 pts
Away team travels 1,066 mi
situational context — the ratings already price these
Full breakdown →
Arizona B12
Power +10.6 · #26
BYU -4.5
25–29
proj total 54.2 · 59%
2026-09-12 · 3:30 PM
BYU B12
Power +12.7 · #14
Arizona offense vs. BYU defense-2.4 pts
BYU offense vs. Arizona defense-0.4 pts
Away team travels 556 mi673 m higher than the visitor's home elevation
situational context — the ratings already price these
Full breakdown →
Iowa State B12
Power +9.7 · #33
Iowa -5.2
22–28
proj total 49.9 · 61%
2026-09-12 · 7:30 PM
Iowa B1G
Power +12.5 · #16
Our number
Iowa -5.2 · 49.9
The market
Iowa -12.0 · 41.5
Win prob · ours vs book
61% vs 82%
Iowa State offense vs. Iowa defense-5.0 pts
Iowa offense vs. Iowa State defense-2.1 pts
Oklahoma SEC
Power +12.0 · #20
Michigan -0.4
24–25
proj total 49.0 · 51%
2026-09-12 · 12:00 PM
Michigan B1G
Power +10.0 · #30
Our number
Michigan -0.4 · 49.0
The market
Michigan -2.5 · 45.5
Win prob · ours vs book
51% vs 56%
Oklahoma offense vs. Michigan defense-3.0 pts
Michigan offense vs. Oklahoma defense-5.0 pts
Away team travels 883 mi
situational context — the ratings already price these
Full breakdown →
Arkansas SEC
Power +6.2 · #65
Utah -11.8
28–40
proj total 67.5 · 74%
2026-09-12 · 10:15 PM
Utah B12
Power +15.6 · #7
Our number
Utah -11.8 · 67.5
The market
Utah -10.0
Win prob · ours vs book
74% vs —
Arkansas offense vs. Utah defense+0.5 pts
Utah offense vs. Arkansas defense+9.9 pts
Away team travels 1,008 mi1,006 m higher than the visitor's home elevation
situational context — the ratings already price these
Full breakdown →
Arizona State B12
Power +8.3 · #47
Texas A&M -7.4
24–31
proj total 54.5 · 65%
2026-09-12 · 12:00 PM
Texas A&M SEC
Power +13.3 · #11
Our number
Texas A&M -7.4 · 54.5
The market
Texas A&M -14.5
Win prob · ours vs book
65% vs —
Arizona State offense vs. Texas A&M defense-3.7 pts
Texas A&M offense vs. Arizona State defense+1.3 pts
Away team travels 933 mi
situational context — the ratings already price these
Full breakdown →
Tennessee SEC
Power +10.6 · #27
Georgia Tech -0.4
34–34
proj total 67.4 · 51%
2026-09-12 · 7:00 PM
Georgia Tech ACC
Power +8.5 · #44
Tennessee offense vs. Georgia Tech defense+6.2 pts
Georgia Tech offense vs. Tennessee defense+4.2 pts
Duke ACC
Power +8.5 · #45
Illinois -4.2
30–34
proj total 63.8 · 59%
2026-09-12 · 3:30 PM
Illinois B1G
Power +10.3 · #29
Duke offense vs. Illinois defense+2.5 pts
Illinois offense vs. Duke defense+4.3 pts
Away team travels 579 mi
situational context — the ratings already price these
Full breakdown →
Alabama SEC
Power +12.2 · #18
Alabama -3.6
29–25
proj total 53.7 · 58%
2026-09-12 · 3:30 PM
Kentucky SEC
Power +6.2 · #66
Alabama offense vs. Kentucky defense+1.4 pts
Kentucky offense vs. Alabama defense-4.7 pts
Missouri SEC
Power +9.7 · #34
Missouri -1.2
29–28
proj total 56.1 · 53%
2026-09-11 · 8:00 PM
Kansas B12
Power +6.1 · #69
Our number
Missouri -1.2 · 56.1
The market
Kansas +6.8 · 51.5
Win prob · ours vs book
47% vs 33%
Missouri offense vs. Kansas defense+1.4 pts
Kansas offense vs. Missouri defense-2.2 pts
Only the marquee games are shown as panels — see all 131 games.