On the board
83 priced of 131
Median gap
5.1
Straight up
104–32
Model state
EARLY SEASON
● Top projected winners
76% · 104-32 this season
The model's most-likely winners — a read, not a betting edge. Graded straight-up on the public record once games are played.
Top projected winners
ranked by our win probability · graded straight up, never against a price
Utah
-21.4 · 91%
over Arkansas
W
10–43
Alabama
-17.4 · 86%
over Kentucky
W
45–17
Kent State
-16.8 · 85%
over Wofford
W
15–36
Tennessee
-12.9 · 79%
over Georgia Tech
W
45–24
North Texas
-12.6 · 78%
over UNLV
W
6–44
Mississippi State
-11.5 · 76%
over Minnesota
L
38–13
Florida International
-10.5 · 74%
over Buffalo
W
20–33
UCLA
-9.9 · 73%
over San Diego State
W
10–28
Top spread reads
ranked by the book’s de-vigged lean toward our side — the only calibrated cover probability here; “we differ by” is distance, not confidence
Wisconsin
-37.5 · book 52%
we differ by 11.6 pts
L
9–36
San José State
-20.5 · book 52%
we differ by 1.0 pts
L
20–30
East Tennessee State
+35.5 · book 51%
we differ by 7.2 pts
W
3–35
Central Connecticut
+35.5 · book 51%
we differ by 1.9 pts
L
10–63
Penn State
-23.5 · book 51%
we differ by 5.9 pts
L
27–9
Virginia Tech
-18.5 · book 51%
we differ by 15.3 pts
W
21–44
Colorado
-33.5 · book 51%
we differ by 7.4 pts
L
21–52
Western Michigan
-26.5 · book 51%
we differ by 4.1 pts
W
14–49
Top total reads
ranked by the book’s de-vigged lean toward our side; the points are our distance from the line
Over 54.5
book 52% · -1.3 pts
SDSU @ UCLA · ours 52.2
L
10–28
Under 55.5
book 52% · -5.5 pts
TOW @ SC · ours 52.0
W
9–45
Over 47.5
book 51% · +5.4 pts
ILST @ NIU · ours 52.9
W
28–24
Under 45.5
book 51% · +7.3 pts
SAC @ FRES · ours 51.8
L
3–49
Under 55.5
book 51% · +0.8 pts
WAG @ JMU · ours 57.3
L
3–87
Over 52.5
book 51% · +4.5 pts
MERC @ UNM · ours 59.0
W
7–70
Under 55.5
book 51% · +4.8 pts
ARK @ UTAH · ours 60.3
W
10–43
Under 56.5
book 51% · +0.4 pts
APP @ ECU · ours 55.9
W
27–24
Top team totals
our projected score against the book’s team total · 46 games priced this week
Louisiana
Under 14.5 · book 54%
ours 22.8 · vs USC
L
30–49
Iowa
Over 26.5 · book 53%
ours 25.8 · vs Iowa State
L
13–16
Oklahoma State
Under 17.5 · book 53%
ours 20.8 · vs Oregon
L
31–39
Utah State
Over 13.5 · book 53%
ours 17.9 · vs Washington
W
14–16
Clemson
Under 38.5 · book 53%
ours 31.3 · vs Georgia Southern
W
7–22
Ohio State
Over 23.5 · book 53%
ours 27.9 · vs Texas
L
23–24
Arkansas
Over 20.5 · book 52%
ours 19.4 · vs Utah
L
10–43
Utah
Under 34.5 · book 52%
ours 40.8 · vs Arkansas
L
10–43
Our side
SpreadOSU +1.5loggedlive now: OSU +2
TotalOver 49.5loggedlive now: Over 50.5
MoneylineOSU to winlogged
the side our number implies — a read, not a bet
Final
OSU 23 · TEX 24
ML L
Spread W
Total L
our logged sides, graded on the record
The book
TEX -2.0 · 50.5
The gap
4.9 pts · +2.3 total
Win prob · ours vs book
43% vs 54%
Kickoff
Sat Sep 12 · 7:30 PM
Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Network
captured in-game
spread
OSU 65% bets · 64% money
total
Over 64% bets · 77% money
ML
TEX 52% bets · 49% money · money OSU
| Book | OSU spread | TEX spread | Over | Under | OSU win | TEX win | OSU TT over | OSU TT under | TEX TT over | TEX TT under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| FanDuel | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| BetMGM | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| ESPN Bet | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| Caesars | — | — | — | — |
gold = best price · ★ = our model’s side · tap any price to build there
OSU off vs TEX def -0.7 · TEX off vs OSU def -5.6
Away team travels 1,066 mi
Full breakdown →
Our side
SpreadALA -10.5loggedlive now: ALA -8.5
TotalOver 49.5loggedlive now: Over 47.5
MoneylineALA to winlogged
the side our number implies — a read, not a bet
Final
ALA 45 · UK 17
ML W
Spread W
Total W
our logged sides, graded on the record
The book
UK +8.5 · 47.5
The gap
8.9 pts · +8.2 total
Win prob · ours vs book
17% vs 25%
Kickoff
Sat Sep 12 · 3:30 PM · SEC game
Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Network
captured in-game
spread
ALA 79% bets · 66% money
total
Under 70% bets · 51% money
ML
ALA 98% bets · 96% money
| Book | ALA spread | UK spread | Over | Under | ALA win | UK win | ALA TT over | ALA TT under | UK TT over | UK TT under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| FanDuel | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| BetMGM | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| ESPN Bet | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| Caesars | — | — | — | — |
gold = best price · ★ = our model’s side · tap any price to build there
ALA off vs UK def +9.3 · UK off vs ALA def -10.1
Full breakdown →
Our side
SpreadARIZ +7.5loggedlive now: ARIZ +7
TotalUnder 48loggedlive now: Over 48.5
MoneylineBYU to winlogged
the side our number implies — a read, not a bet
Final
ARIZ 17 · BYU 28
ML W
Spread L
Total W
our logged sides, graded on the record
The book
BYU -7.0 · 48.5
The gap
3.0 pts · +4.5 total
Win prob · ours vs book
59% vs 70%
Kickoff
Sat Sep 12 · 3:30 PM · B12 game
Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Network
captured in-game
spread
BYU 69% bets · 60% money
total
Over 65% bets · 57% money
ML
BYU 98% bets · 66% money
| Book | ARIZ spread | BYU spread | Over | Under | ARIZ win | BYU win | ARIZ TT over | ARIZ TT under | BYU TT over | BYU TT under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| FanDuel | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| BetMGM | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| ESPN Bet | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| Caesars | — | — | — | — |
gold = best price · ★ = our model’s side · tap any price to build there
ARIZ off vs BYU def -4.0 · BYU off vs ARIZ def -1.9
Away team travels 556 mi
Full breakdown →
Our side
SpreadISU +14logged
TotalOver 40.5loggedlive now: Over 42.5
MoneylineIOWA to winlogged
the side our number implies — a read, not a bet
Final
ISU 13 · IOWA 16
ML W
Spread W
Total L
our logged sides, graded on the record
The book
IOWA -14.0 · 42.5
The gap
9.3 pts · +4.4 total
Win prob · ours vs book
60% vs 83%
Kickoff
Sat Sep 12 · 7:30 PM
Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Network
captured in-game
spread
ISU 50% bets · 56% money
total
Under 60% bets · 68% money
ML
IOWA 98% bets · 46% money · money ISU
| Book | ISU spread | IOWA spread | Over | Under | ISU win | IOWA win | ISU TT over | ISU TT under | IOWA TT over | IOWA TT under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| FanDuel | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| BetMGM | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| ESPN Bet | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| Caesars | — | — | — | — |
gold = best price · ★ = our model’s side · tap any price to build there
ISU off vs IOWA def -10.3 · IOWA off vs ISU def -7.5
Full breakdown →
Our side
SpreadOU -5.5loggedlive now: MICH +4.5
TotalUnder 43.5loggedlive now: Over 43.5
MoneylineOU to winloggedlive now: MICH to win
the side our number implies — a read, not a bet
Final
OU 10 · MICH 17
ML L
Spread L
Total W
our logged sides, graded on the record
The book
MICH +4.5 · 43.5
The gap
4.6 pts · +0.9 total
Win prob · ours vs book
50% vs 35%
Kickoff
Sat Sep 12 · 12:00 PM
Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Network
captured in-game
spread
OU 79% bets · 81% money
total
Under 60% bets · 66% money
ML
OU 86% bets · 89% money
| Book | OU spread | MICH spread | Over | Under | OU win | MICH win | OU TT over | OU TT under | MICH TT over | MICH TT under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| FanDuel | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| BetMGM | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| ESPN Bet | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| Caesars | — | — | — | — |
gold = best price · ★ = our model’s side · tap any price to build there
OU off vs MICH def -10.4 · MICH off vs OU def -12.2
Away team travels 883 mi
Full breakdown →
Our side
SpreadASU +14.5loggedlive now: TA&M -14.5
TotalUnder 50.5loggedlive now: Over 50.5
MoneylineTA&M to winlogged
the side our number implies — a read, not a bet
Final
ASU 20 · TA&M 48
ML W
Spread L
Total L
our logged sides, graded on the record
The book
TA&M -14.5 · 50.5
The gap
4.8 pts · +9.5 total
Win prob · ours vs book
86% vs 85%
Kickoff
Sat Sep 12 · 12:00 PM
Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Network
captured in-game
spread
TA&M 64% bets · 48% money · money ASU
total
Under 52% bets · 38% money · money Over
ML
TA&M 97% bets · 93% money
| Book | ASU spread | TA&M spread | Over | Under | ASU win | TA&M win | ASU TT over | ASU TT under | TA&M TT over | TA&M TT under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| FanDuel | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| BetMGM | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| ESPN Bet | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| Caesars | — | — | — | — |
gold = best price · ★ = our model’s side · tap any price to build there
ASU off vs TA&M def -5.0 · TA&M off vs ASU def +12.6
Away team travels 933 mi
Full breakdown →
Our side
SpreadUTAH -12.5logged
TotalUnder 55.5loggedlive now: Over 55.5
MoneylineUTAH to winlogged
the side our number implies — a read, not a bet
Final
ARK 10 · UTAH 43
ML W
Spread W
Total W
our logged sides, graded on the record
The book
UTAH -12.5 · 55.5
The gap
8.9 pts · +4.8 total
Win prob · ours vs book
88% vs 80%
Kickoff
Sat Sep 12 · 10:30 PM
Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Network
captured in-game
spread
UTAH 57% bets · 58% money
total
Under 96% bets · 59% money
ML
UTAH 96% bets · 97% money
| Book | ARK spread | UTAH spread | Over | Under | ARK win | UTAH win | ARK TT over | ARK TT under | UTAH TT over | UTAH TT under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| FanDuel | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| BetMGM | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| ESPN Bet | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| Caesars | — | — | — | — |
gold = best price · ★ = our model’s side · tap any price to build there
ARK off vs UTAH def -5.8 · UTAH off vs ARK def +13.9
Away team travels 1,008 mi
Full breakdown →
Our side
SpreadILL -6loggedlive now: DUKE +6.5
TotalUnder 51.5loggedlive now: Over 51.5
MoneylineILL to winloggedlive now: DUKE to win
the side our number implies — a read, not a bet
Final
DUKE 31 · ILL 27
ML L
Spread L
Total L
our logged sides, graded on the record
The book
ILL -6.5 · 51.5
The gap
7.9 pts · +5.7 total
Win prob · ours vs book
47% vs 68%
Kickoff
Sat Sep 12 · 3:30 PM
Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Network
captured in-game
spread
ILL 62% bets · 68% money
total
Under 62% bets · 66% money
ML
ILL 95% bets · 92% money
| Book | DUKE spread | ILL spread | Over | Under | DUKE win | ILL win | DUKE TT over | DUKE TT under | ILL TT over | ILL TT under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| FanDuel | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| BetMGM | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| ESPN Bet | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| Caesars | — | — | — | — |
gold = best price · ★ = our model’s side · tap any price to build there
DUKE off vs ILL def +2.7 · ILL off vs DUKE def -0.5
Away team travels 579 mi
Full breakdown →
Our side
SpreadGT +12.5loggedlive now: TENN -12.5
TotalUnder 55.5loggedlive now: Over 55.5
MoneylineTENN to winlogged
the side our number implies — a read, not a bet
Final
TENN 45 · GT 24
ML W
Spread L
Total L
our logged sides, graded on the record
The book
GT +12.5 · 55.5
The gap
0.4 pts · +6.8 total
Win prob · ours vs book
24% vs 20%
Kickoff
Sat Sep 12 · 7:00 PM
Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Network
captured in-game
spread
TENN 72% bets · 65% money
total
Over 77% bets · 79% money
ML
TENN 99% bets · 94% money
| Book | TENN spread | GT spread | Over | Under | TENN win | GT win | TENN TT over | TENN TT under | GT TT over | GT TT under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| FanDuel | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| BetMGM | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| ESPN Bet | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| Caesars | — | — | — | — |
gold = best price · ★ = our model’s side · tap any price to build there
TENN off vs GT def +13.4 · GT off vs TENN def -1.5
Full breakdown →
Our side
SpreadPITT -7logged
TotalUnder 57.5loggedlive now: Under 55.5
MoneylinePITT to winlogged
the side our number implies — a read, not a bet
Final
UCF 7 · PITT 12
ML W
Spread L
Total W
our logged sides, graded on the record
The book
PITT -7.0 · 55.5
The gap
1.8 pts · -4.2 total
Win prob · ours vs book
69% vs 70%
Kickoff
Sat Sep 12 · 3:30 PM
Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Network
captured in-game
spread
PITT 54% bets · 48% money · money UCF
total
Under 63% bets · 62% money
ML
PITT 96% bets · 92% money
| Book | UCF spread | PITT spread | Over | Under | UCF win | PITT win | UCF TT over | UCF TT under | PITT TT over | PITT TT under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| FanDuel | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| BetMGM | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| ESPN Bet | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| Caesars | — | — | — | — |
gold = best price · ★ = our model’s side · tap any price to build there
UCF off vs PITT def -8.1 · PITT off vs UCF def -1.1
Away team travels 821 mi
Full breakdown →
Only the marquee games are shown as panels — the sheet carries all 83 priced games.