Our side
MoneylineMERC to win
ours 65%
Projected score
25–31
NHVN – MERC
2026-11-21 · 12:00 PM
Saxon Stadium · Erie, PA
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Mercyhurst lead
1–0
· 1 meeting since 2025
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge New Haven Chargers
49 ranks
New Haven Chargers #163 rush offense
Mercyhurst Lakers #212 run defense
Pass game
even
43 ranks apart
New Haven Chargers #100 pass offense
Mercyhurst Lakers #143 pass defense
Run game
edge New Haven Chargers
136 ranks
Mercyhurst Lakers #220 rush offense
New Haven Chargers #84 run defense
Pass game
edge New Haven Chargers
99 ranks
Mercyhurst Lakers #190 pass offense
New Haven Chargers #91 pass defense
New Haven Chargers
Balanced · 51% run
Ball-control
Mercyhurst Lakers
Balanced · 47% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
New Haven Chargers
DB
Myles Hansford
14 tkl · 2 PD
#196 DB
DL
Tyler Hammel
10 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL
#273 DL
DB
Mason Taylor
20 tkl
#294 DB
P
Joe Fragale
14 punts · 41.5 yd avg
#33 P
Mercyhurst Lakers
DL
Zacchaeus Dixon
15 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.5 TFL
#135 DL
DB
Braylon Beckwith
21 tkl
#182 DB
TE
Camden Lewis
10 rec · 83 yds · 1 TD
#44 TE
P
Thomas O'Neill
19 punts · 43.3 yd avg
#24 P
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
New Haven offense vs Mercyhurst defense-1.9 pts
Mercyhurst offense vs New Haven defense+2.7 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-1.5 pts
Power projection before adjustment+7.5
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).