BallKnowMe college football, by the numbers

← Matchups

Marshall

SBC · 1-1 · power +5.2 · #121
Our numberMRSH -11.9 no book has priced this game

UL Monroe

SBC · 0-2 · power -4.2 · #234
Our side
MoneylineMRSH to win ours 32%
Projected score 34–22 MRSH – ULM
2026-11-28 · kickoff TBD Malone Stadium · Monroe, LA SBC game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Marshall lead 1–0 · 1 meeting since 2024
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge UL Monroe Warhawks 53 ranks
Marshall Thundering Herd #172 rush offense UL Monroe Warhawks #119 run defense
Pass game edge Marshall Thundering Herd 138 ranks
Marshall Thundering Herd #61 pass offense UL Monroe Warhawks #199 pass defense
Run game edge Marshall Thundering Herd 135 ranks
UL Monroe Warhawks #204 rush offense Marshall Thundering Herd #69 run defense
Pass game even 13 ranks apart
UL Monroe Warhawks #137 pass offense Marshall Thundering Herd #150 pass defense
Marshall Thundering Herd Run-heavy · 62% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 60 rush ypg UL Monroe Warhawks Run-heavy · 61% run Ball-control
Tony Gibson · 5-7 Bryant Vincent · 15-22

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Marshall Thundering Herd
DB Caleb Clark-Glover 20 tkl · 2 PD #50 DB
DL Kelvon McBride 6 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #91 DL
TE Toby Payne 9 rec · 61 yds #49 TE
DL Nate Blanc 2 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #323 DL
UL Monroe Warhawks
DB Jabari Tiller 18 tkl · 1 PD #116 DB
DB Carl Fauntroy 12 tkl · 1 INT #119 DB
LB Noah Flemmings 20 tkl · 0.5 TFL #137 LB
DL Kevontay Wells 5 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #438 DL

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Marshall Thundering HerdSBC +5.2 +3.8 +1.3 #121
UL Monroe WarhawksSBC -4.2 -3.9 -0.4 #234

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Marshall offense vs UL Monroe defense+4.2 pts
UL Monroe offense vs Marshall defense-5.2 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 678 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.