Our side
MoneylineTROY to win
ours 70%
Projected score
22–29
ULM – TROY
2026-10-24 · kickoff TBD
Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL) · Troy, AL
SBC game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Troy lead
11–8
· 19 meetings since 1995
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Troy Trojans
95 ranks
UL Monroe Warhawks #204 rush offense
Troy Trojans #109 run defense
Pass game
edge Troy Trojans
73 ranks
UL Monroe Warhawks #137 pass offense
Troy Trojans #64 pass defense
Run game
edge UL Monroe Warhawks
107 ranks
Troy Trojans #226 rush offense
UL Monroe Warhawks #119 run defense
Pass game
even
12 ranks apart
Troy Trojans #187 pass offense
UL Monroe Warhawks #199 pass defense
UL Monroe Warhawks
Run-heavy · 61% run
Ball-control
Troy Trojans
Balanced · 54% run
Avg pace
Bryant Vincent · 15-22
Gerad Parker · 12-20 · defense-minded
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
UL Monroe Warhawks
DB
Jabari Tiller
18 tkl · 1 PD
#116 DB
DB
Carl Fauntroy
12 tkl · 1 INT
#119 DB
LB
Noah Flemmings
20 tkl · 0.5 TFL
#137 LB
DL
Kevontay Wells
5 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL
#438 DL
Troy Trojans
DL
Keno Jones
13 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 4.5 TFL
#22 DL
DB
Donnie Smith
9 tkl · 1 PD
#63 DB
WR
TK Keyes
7 rec · 167 yds · 2 TD
#109 WR
RB
Jaheim Merriweather
149 rush yds · 3 TD · 1 rec
#79 RB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
UL Monroe offense vs Troy defense-7.7 pts
Troy offense vs UL Monroe defense-0.9 pts
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.