Our side
MoneylineJXST to win
ours 41%
Projected score
27–26
JXST – NMSU
2026-10-28 · 8:00 PM
Aggie Memorial Stadium · Las Cruces, NM
CUSA game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Jacksonville State and New Mexico State split 2 (1–1)
· 2 meetings since 2023
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
8 ranks apart
Jacksonville State Gamecocks #48 rush offense
New Mexico State Aggies #40 run defense
Pass game
even
15 ranks apart
Jacksonville State Gamecocks #156 pass offense
New Mexico State Aggies #141 pass defense
Run game
edge Jacksonville State Gamecocks
156 ranks
New Mexico State Aggies #262 rush offense
Jacksonville State Gamecocks #106 run defense
Pass game
edge Jacksonville State Gamecocks
82 ranks
New Mexico State Aggies #191 pass offense
Jacksonville State Gamecocks #109 pass defense
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
Run-heavy · 68% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 83 rush ypg
New Mexico State Aggies
Balanced · 47% run
Avg pace
Charles Kelly · 9-5
Tony Sanchez · 27-57 · defense-minded
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
DB
Caleb Nix
18 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#18 DB
DL
Tae Floyd
12 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 5.0 TFL
#41 DL
WR
Jamill Williams
14 rec · 188 yds · 4 TD
#33 WR
QB
Caden Creel
677 pass yds · 6 TD · 2 INT
#18 QB
New Mexico State Aggies
DB
Nick Session
21 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#19 DB
DL
Gabe Peterson
13 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#63 DL
WR
TK King
14 rec · 239 yds · 2 TD
#48 WR
RB
James Jones
243 rush yds · 2 TD · 4 rec
#43 RB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Jacksonville State offense vs New Mexico State defense+2.0 pts
New Mexico State offense vs Jacksonville State defense-3.7 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+0.0 pts
Power projection before adjustment-1.5
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 1,217 mi
Altitude · context only1,009 m higher than the visitor's home elevation
Rest · context onlyAway team on 8 more days rest
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.