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Troy

SBC · 2-0 · power +2.5 · #146
Our numberJMU -14.2 no book has priced this game

James Madison

SBC · 2-0 · power +14.1 · #59
Our side
MoneylineJMU to win ours 80%
Projected score 18–32 TROY – JMU
2026-10-29 · 7:30 PM Bridgeforth Stadium · Harrisonburg, VA SBC game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series James Madison lead 2–0 · 2 meetings since 2023
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge James Madison Dukes 205 ranks
Troy Trojans #226 rush offense James Madison Dukes #21 run defense
Pass game edge James Madison Dukes 162 ranks
Troy Trojans #187 pass offense James Madison Dukes #25 pass defense
Run game edge James Madison Dukes 73 ranks
James Madison Dukes #36 rush offense Troy Trojans #109 run defense
Pass game even 21 ranks apart
James Madison Dukes #85 pass offense Troy Trojans #64 pass defense
Troy Trojans Balanced · 54% run Avg pace James Madison Dukes Run-heavy · 62% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 42 rush ypg
Gerad Parker · 12-20 · defense-minded Bob Chesney · 21-6

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Troy Trojans
DL Keno Jones 13 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 4.5 TFL #22 DL
DB Donnie Smith 9 tkl · 1 PD #63 DB
WR TK Keyes 7 rec · 167 yds · 2 TD #109 WR
RB Jaheim Merriweather 149 rush yds · 3 TD · 1 rec #79 RB
James Madison Dukes
K Morgan Suarez 3 FG · 14 XP · 23 pts #20 K
RB George Pettaway 99 rush yds · 4 TD #76 RB
DB Ken Willis 14 tkl #273 DB
RB Nick Herman 135 rush yds · 2 TD · 2 rec #160 RB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Troy TrojansSBC +2.5 -1.3 +3.8 #146
James Madison DukesSBC +14.1 +10.4 +3.8 #59

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Troy offense vs James Madison defense-5.1 pts
James Madison offense vs Troy defense+6.5 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 608 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.