Our side
MoneylineARST to win
ours 74%
Projected score
23–32
ULM – ARST
2026-11-07 · 3:00 PM
Centennial Bank Stadium · Jonesboro, AR
SBC game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Arkansas State lead
26–9
· 35 meetings since 1974
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
20 ranks apart
UL Monroe Warhawks #204 rush offense
Arkansas State Red Wolves #184 run defense
Pass game
even
43 ranks apart
UL Monroe Warhawks #137 pass offense
Arkansas State Red Wolves #180 pass defense
Run game
edge UL Monroe Warhawks
116 ranks
Arkansas State Red Wolves #235 rush offense
UL Monroe Warhawks #119 run defense
Pass game
edge Arkansas State Red Wolves
51 ranks
Arkansas State Red Wolves #148 pass offense
UL Monroe Warhawks #199 pass defense
UL Monroe Warhawks
Run-heavy · 61% run
Ball-control
Arkansas State Red Wolves
Balanced · 46% run
Up-tempo
Dual-threat QB · 36 rush ypg
Bryant Vincent · 15-22
Butch Jones · 48-51
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
UL Monroe Warhawks
DB
Jabari Tiller
18 tkl · 1 PD
#116 DB
DB
Carl Fauntroy
12 tkl · 1 INT
#119 DB
LB
Noah Flemmings
20 tkl · 0.5 TFL
#137 LB
DL
Kevontay Wells
5 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL
#438 DL
Arkansas State Red Wolves
RB
Kenyon Clay
99 rush yds · 2 TD · 4 rec
#33 RB
DB
Five Hamilton
8 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#78 DB
LB
Robert Stevens
15 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL
#50 LB
DL
Elias Sherman
13 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 1.0 TFL
#93 DL
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
UL Monroe offense vs Arkansas State defense-4.0 pts
Arkansas State offense vs UL Monroe defense+4.5 pts
Rest · context onlyHome team on 7 more days rest
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.