← Matchups

Georgia State

SBC · 2-0 · power +2.0 · #152
Our numberARST -4.3 no book has priced this game

Arkansas State

SBC · 1-1 · power +4.3 · #129
Our side
MoneylineARST to win ours 60%
Projected score 25–29 GAST – ARST
2026-10-24 · 7:00 PM Centennial Bank Stadium · Jonesboro, AR SBC game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Arkansas State lead 7–2 · 9 meetings since 2013
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 26 ranks apart
Georgia State Panthers #158 rush offense Arkansas State Red Wolves #184 run defense
Pass game even 42 ranks apart
Georgia State Panthers #138 pass offense Arkansas State Red Wolves #180 pass defense
Run game even 2 ranks apart
Arkansas State Red Wolves #235 rush offense Georgia State Panthers #237 run defense
Pass game edge Arkansas State Red Wolves 91 ranks
Arkansas State Red Wolves #148 pass offense Georgia State Panthers #239 pass defense
Georgia State Panthers Balanced · 50% run Avg pace Arkansas State Red Wolves Balanced · 46% run Up-tempo Dual-threat QB · 36 rush ypg
Dell McGee · 4-20 · offense-minded Butch Jones · 48-51

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Georgia State Panthers
QB Cameran Brown 443 pass yds · 2 TD · 1 INT #48 QB
RB Dennis Murray Jr. 75 rush yds · 2 TD · 3 rec #101 RB
LB Xavier Esqillion 7 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.5 TFL #156 LB
DL Jabriel Rhodes-Nelson 6 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL #281 DL
Arkansas State Red Wolves
RB Kenyon Clay 99 rush yds · 2 TD · 4 rec #33 RB
DB Five Hamilton 8 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT #78 DB
LB Robert Stevens 15 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL #50 LB
DL Elias Sherman 13 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 1.0 TFL #93 DL

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Georgia State PanthersSBC +2.0 +2.8 -0.7 #152
Arkansas State Red WolvesSBC +4.3 +4.1 +0.2 #129

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Georgia State offense vs Arkansas State defense+2.6 pts
Arkansas State offense vs Georgia State defense+4.9 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.