Our side
MoneylineARST to win
ours 60%
Projected score
25–29
GAST – ARST
2026-10-24 · 7:00 PM
Centennial Bank Stadium · Jonesboro, AR
SBC game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Arkansas State lead
7–2
· 9 meetings since 2013
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
26 ranks apart
Georgia State Panthers #158 rush offense
Arkansas State Red Wolves #184 run defense
Pass game
even
42 ranks apart
Georgia State Panthers #138 pass offense
Arkansas State Red Wolves #180 pass defense
Run game
even
2 ranks apart
Arkansas State Red Wolves #235 rush offense
Georgia State Panthers #237 run defense
Pass game
edge Arkansas State Red Wolves
91 ranks
Arkansas State Red Wolves #148 pass offense
Georgia State Panthers #239 pass defense
Georgia State Panthers
Balanced · 50% run
Avg pace
Arkansas State Red Wolves
Balanced · 46% run
Up-tempo
Dual-threat QB · 36 rush ypg
Dell McGee · 4-20 · offense-minded
Butch Jones · 48-51
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Georgia State Panthers
QB
Cameran Brown
443 pass yds · 2 TD · 1 INT
#48 QB
RB
Dennis Murray Jr.
75 rush yds · 2 TD · 3 rec
#101 RB
LB
Xavier Esqillion
7 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.5 TFL
#156 LB
DL
Jabriel Rhodes-Nelson
6 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#281 DL
Arkansas State Red Wolves
RB
Kenyon Clay
99 rush yds · 2 TD · 4 rec
#33 RB
DB
Five Hamilton
8 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#78 DB
LB
Robert Stevens
15 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL
#50 LB
DL
Elias Sherman
13 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 1.0 TFL
#93 DL
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Georgia State offense vs Arkansas State defense+2.6 pts
Arkansas State offense vs Georgia State defense+4.9 pts
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.