Our side
MoneylineETAM to win
ours 40%
Projected score
30–26
ETAM – HCU
2026-10-17 · 7:00 PM
Husky Stadium (TX) · Houston, TX
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
East Texas A&M lead
4–1
· 5 meetings since 2013
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
6 ranks apart
East Texas A&M Lions #166 rush offense
Houston Christian Huskies #172 run defense
Pass game
edge Houston Christian Huskies
149 ranks
East Texas A&M Lions #237 pass offense
Houston Christian Huskies #88 pass defense
Run game
even
6 ranks apart
Houston Christian Huskies #202 rush offense
East Texas A&M Lions #196 run defense
Pass game
even
33 ranks apart
Houston Christian Huskies #261 pass offense
East Texas A&M Lions #228 pass defense
East Texas A&M Lions
Balanced · 50% run
Ball-control
Houston Christian Huskies
Balanced · 55% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
East Texas A&M Lions
DB
Tramar Gilbert
23 tkl · 1 PD
#39 DB
WR
Micah Simpson
17 rec · 311 yds · 2 TD
#29 WR
DL
Duncan Parham
12 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#86 DL
DB
Jamari Mosley
11 tkl · 2 PD
#220 DB
Houston Christian Huskies
LB
Jayven Anderson
21 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 7.0 TFL
#25 LB
P
Julian Maceri
5 punts · 45.2 yd avg
#9 P
DL
Calvin Kalu-Alexander
6 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL
#351 DL
DB
Darius Bean
17 tkl · 1 PD
#341 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
East Texas A&M offense vs Houston Christian defense+2.7 pts
Houston Christian offense vs East Texas A&M defense-3.4 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-0.5 pts
Power projection before adjustment-3.6
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).