← Matchups

Northwestern State

· 0-3 (0-1) · power -27.1 · #392
Our numberUIW -30.9 no book has priced this game

Incarnate Word

· 1-1 · power +0.1 · #174
Our side
MoneylineUIW to win ours 97%
Projected score 16–47 NWST – UIW
2026-10-31 · 5:00 PM Gayle and Tom Benson Stadium · San Antonio, TX Conference game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Incarnate Word lead 5–3 · 8 meetings since 2014
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Incarnate Word Cardinals 208 ranks
Northwestern State Demons #259 rush offense Incarnate Word Cardinals #51 run defense
Pass game edge Incarnate Word Cardinals 96 ranks
Northwestern State Demons #265 pass offense Incarnate Word Cardinals #169 pass defense
Run game edge Incarnate Word Cardinals 105 ranks
Incarnate Word Cardinals #160 rush offense Northwestern State Demons #265 run defense
Pass game edge Incarnate Word Cardinals 90 ranks
Incarnate Word Cardinals #172 pass offense Northwestern State Demons #262 pass defense
Northwestern State Demons Run-heavy · 63% run Ball-control Incarnate Word Cardinals Balanced · 52% run Avg pace

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Northwestern State Demons
DL Geoffrey Ojeh 7 tkl · 1.0 TFL #296 DL
DB Joe Natali 14 tkl #481 DB
LB Danny Sears 14 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 0.5 TFL #370 LB
DB Diego Sanchez 9 tkl · 1 PD #676 DB
Incarnate Word Cardinals
DL Jeremiah Young 7 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL #28 DL
RB Lontrell Turner 153 rush yds · 3 TD · 1 rec #60 RB
LB Christian Barney 18 tkl · 1.0 TFL #103 LB
WR Isaiah Champagne 12 rec · 141 yds · 1 TD #159 WR

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Northwestern State Demons -27.1 -9.6 -17.4 #392
Incarnate Word Cardinals +0.1 +3.7 -3.7 #174

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Northwestern State offense vs Incarnate Word defense-6.0 pts
Incarnate Word offense vs Northwestern State defense+21.2 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.