Our side
MoneylineNICH to win
ours 9%
Projected score
41–19
NICH – NWST
2026-10-24 · 3:00 PM
Turpin Stadium · Natchitoches, LA
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Nicholls lead
18–8
· 26 meetings since 1976
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Nicholls Colonels
67 ranks
Nicholls Colonels #198 rush offense
Northwestern State Demons #265 run defense
Pass game
edge Nicholls Colonels
50 ranks
Nicholls Colonels #212 pass offense
Northwestern State Demons #262 pass defense
Run game
even
10 ranks apart
Northwestern State Demons #259 rush offense
Nicholls Colonels #249 run defense
Pass game
edge Nicholls Colonels
203 ranks
Northwestern State Demons #265 pass offense
Nicholls Colonels #62 pass defense
Nicholls Colonels
Run-heavy · 59% run
Ball-control
Northwestern State Demons
Run-heavy · 63% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Nicholls Colonels
DB
Skylar Husband
20 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#71 DB
DL
Alex Villavaso
9 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#102 DL
LB
Kennon Loftin
24 tkl
#96 LB
WR
Jackson Dufrene
6 rec · 105 yds · 3 TD
#101 WR
Northwestern State Demons
DL
Geoffrey Ojeh
7 tkl · 1.0 TFL
#296 DL
DB
Joe Natali
14 tkl
#481 DB
LB
Danny Sears
14 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 0.5 TFL
#370 LB
DB
Diego Sanchez
9 tkl · 1 PD
#676 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Nicholls offense vs Northwestern State defense+14.8 pts
Northwestern State offense vs Nicholls defense-7.7 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-1.3 pts
Power projection before adjustment-20.4
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).