Our side
MoneylineFAMU to win
ours 65%
Projected score
28–34
UAPB – FAMU
2026-10-24 · 3:00 PM
Bragg Memorial Stadium · Tallahassee, FL
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Florida A&M lead
3–0
· 3 meetings since 2021
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
33 ranks apart
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions #195 rush offense
Florida A&M Rattlers #228 run defense
Pass game
even
16 ranks apart
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions #258 pass offense
Florida A&M Rattlers #242 pass defense
Run game
edge Florida A&M Rattlers
67 ranks
Florida A&M Rattlers #173 rush offense
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions #240 run defense
Pass game
edge Florida A&M Rattlers
84 ranks
Florida A&M Rattlers #142 pass offense
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions #226 pass defense
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions
Balanced · 54% run
Ball-control
Florida A&M Rattlers
Balanced · 56% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions
DB
Michael Henderson
21 tkl · 3 PD · 1 INT
#7 DB
DL
Derick Simon Jr.
19 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 2.5 TFL
#75 DL
DL
Keiyhaun Wilks
13 tkl · 3.0 TFL
#188 DL
LB
Danarius Hilliard
26 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#142 LB
Florida A&M Rattlers
DB
Justin Bostic
10 tkl · 2 INT
#44 DB
LB
Denzel Johnson
14 tkl
#218 LB
P
Bobby Engstler
25 punts · 40.0 yd avg
#39 P
DB
Caleb McKenzie
4 tkl
#687 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Arkansas-Pine Bluff offense vs Florida A&M defense+3.5 pts
Florida A&M offense vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff defense+8.5 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-1.7 pts
Power projection before adjustment+8.0
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 523 mi
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.