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Arkansas-Pine Bluff

· 1-2 (0-1) · power -18.2 · #366
Our numberFAMU -6.3 no book has priced this game

Florida A&M

· 1-2 · power -13.1 · #330
Our side
MoneylineFAMU to win ours 65%
Projected score 28–34 UAPB – FAMU
2026-10-24 · 3:00 PM Bragg Memorial Stadium · Tallahassee, FL Conference game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Florida A&M lead 3–0 · 3 meetings since 2021
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 33 ranks apart
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions #195 rush offense Florida A&M Rattlers #228 run defense
Pass game even 16 ranks apart
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions #258 pass offense Florida A&M Rattlers #242 pass defense
Run game edge Florida A&M Rattlers 67 ranks
Florida A&M Rattlers #173 rush offense Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions #240 run defense
Pass game edge Florida A&M Rattlers 84 ranks
Florida A&M Rattlers #142 pass offense Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions #226 pass defense
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions Balanced · 54% run Ball-control Florida A&M Rattlers Balanced · 56% run Ball-control

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions
DB Michael Henderson 21 tkl · 3 PD · 1 INT #7 DB
DL Derick Simon Jr. 19 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 2.5 TFL #75 DL
DL Keiyhaun Wilks 13 tkl · 3.0 TFL #188 DL
LB Danarius Hilliard 26 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 2.0 TFL #142 LB
Florida A&M Rattlers
DB Justin Bostic 10 tkl · 2 INT #44 DB
LB Denzel Johnson 14 tkl #218 LB
P Bobby Engstler 25 punts · 40.0 yd avg #39 P
DB Caleb McKenzie 4 tkl #687 DB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions -18.2 -2.7 -15.4 #366
Florida A&M Rattlers -13.1 -6.9 -6.2 #330

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Arkansas-Pine Bluff offense vs Florida A&M defense+3.5 pts
Florida A&M offense vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff defense+8.5 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-1.7 pts
Power projection before adjustment+8.0
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 523 mi

The projection carries an efficiency adjustment — a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.