Our side
MoneylineCIT to win
ours 29%
Projected score
32–23
CIT – VMI
2026-11-14 · 12:00 PM
Foster Stadium · Lexington, VA
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
The Citadel lead
33–26–1
· 60 meetings since 1920
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
39 ranks apart
The Citadel Bulldogs #203 rush offense
VMI Keydets #164 run defense
Pass game
edge The Citadel Bulldogs
231 ranks
The Citadel Bulldogs #26 pass offense
VMI Keydets #257 pass defense
Run game
edge The Citadel Bulldogs
105 ranks
VMI Keydets #256 rush offense
The Citadel Bulldogs #151 run defense
Pass game
edge VMI Keydets
71 ranks
VMI Keydets #188 pass offense
The Citadel Bulldogs #259 pass defense
The Citadel Bulldogs
Run-heavy · 81% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 57 rush ypg
VMI Keydets
Balanced · 50% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
The Citadel Bulldogs
LB
Zyion Brown
28 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.5 TFL
#19 LB
RB
Gavin Garcia
289 rush yds · 4 TD · 2 rec
#21 RB
DB
J'hari Mosley
18 tkl · 1 INT
#150 DB
RB
Sebastien Boyle
94 rush yds · 3 TD · 4 rec
#137 RB
VMI Keydets
DB
Nic Land
22 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#74 DB
DB
Robert Powell
13 tkl · 2 PD
#345 DB
DB
EJ Wilborne
12 tkl · 1 INT
#522 DB
DB
Anthony Allen
10 tkl
#876 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
The Citadel offense vs VMI defense+3.3 pts
VMI offense vs The Citadel defense-4.3 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-3.7 pts
Power projection before adjustment-5.1
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).