Our side
MoneylineMER to win
ours 13%
Projected score
35–17
MER – SAM
2026-10-17 · 7:00 PM
Seibert Stadium · Birmingham, AL
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Mercer lead
10–9–1
· 20 meetings since 1907
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Mercer Bears
96 ranks
Mercer Bears #122 rush offense
Samford Bulldogs #218 run defense
Pass game
edge Mercer Bears
179 ranks
Mercer Bears #13 pass offense
Samford Bulldogs #192 pass defense
Run game
edge Mercer Bears
245 ranks
Samford Bulldogs #263 rush offense
Mercer Bears #18 run defense
Pass game
edge Mercer Bears
55 ranks
Samford Bulldogs #242 pass offense
Mercer Bears #187 pass defense
Mercer Bears
Balanced · 51% run
Ball-control
Samford Bulldogs
Pass-heavy · 39% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Mercer Bears
DB
Cameron Goggins
8 tkl · 1 PD · 2 INT
#70 DB
WR
Brayden Smith
17 rec · 284 yds · 1 TD
#66 WR
LB
Jyarius Carter
23 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 0.5 TFL
#73 LB
DB
Justin Ferguson
10 tkl · 2 PD · 2 INT
#151 DB
Samford Bulldogs
DB
LaShon Young
21 tkl · 1 PD
#53 DB
DB
Jalen Nelson
25 tkl
#101 DB
WR
Marquise Henderson
9 rec · 218 yds · 1 TD
#92 WR
LB
Spencer Conn
23 tkl · 2.5 TFL
#90 LB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Mercer offense vs Samford defense+5.0 pts
Samford offense vs Mercer defense-12.3 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-3.2 pts
Power projection before adjustment-15.1
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).