← Matchups

Furman

· 2-1 (1-0) · power -0.6 · #188
Our numberFUR -22.9 no book has priced this game

VMI

· 0-3 · power -22.1 · #384
Our side
MoneylineFUR to win ours 8%
Projected score 35–12 FUR – VMI
2026-11-21 · 12:00 PM Foster Stadium · Lexington, VA Conference game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Furman lead 13–11 · 24 meetings since 1946
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge VMI Keydets 50 ranks
Furman Paladins #214 rush offense VMI Keydets #164 run defense
Pass game edge Furman Paladins 92 ranks
Furman Paladins #165 pass offense VMI Keydets #257 pass defense
Run game edge Furman Paladins 91 ranks
VMI Keydets #256 rush offense Furman Paladins #165 run defense
Pass game even 32 ranks apart
VMI Keydets #188 pass offense Furman Paladins #156 pass defense
Furman Paladins Balanced · 47% run Ball-control VMI Keydets Balanced · 50% run Ball-control

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Furman Paladins
DB Eli Lipscomb 12 tkl #127 DB
DB Caleb Easterling 8 tkl · 1 PD · 2 INT #144 DB
WR Daniel Haughton 12 rec · 116 yds · 1 TD #140 WR
DL Joshua Stoneking 10 tkl · 2.0 TFL #265 DL
VMI Keydets
DB Nic Land 22 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT #74 DB
DB Robert Powell 13 tkl · 2 PD #345 DB
DB EJ Wilborne 12 tkl · 1 INT #522 DB
DB Anthony Allen 10 tkl #876 DB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Furman Paladins -0.6 -5.3 +4.7 #188
VMI Keydets -22.1 -14.8 -7.3 #384

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Furman offense vs VMI defense+2.0 pts
VMI offense vs Furman defense-19.5 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-3.4 pts
Power projection before adjustment-19.5

The projection carries an efficiency adjustment — a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).