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Furman

· 2-1 (1-0) · power -0.6 · #188
Our numberFUR -11.7 no book has priced this game

The Citadel

· 1-2 (0-1) · power -14.5 · #340
Our side
MoneylineFUR to win ours 23%
Projected score 33–21 FUR – CIT
2026-11-07 · 2:00 PM Johnson Hagood Stadium · Charleston, SC Conference game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Furman lead 47–32–2 · 81 meetings since 1913
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge The Citadel Bulldogs 63 ranks
Furman Paladins #214 rush offense The Citadel Bulldogs #151 run defense
Pass game edge Furman Paladins 94 ranks
Furman Paladins #165 pass offense The Citadel Bulldogs #259 pass defense
Run game even 38 ranks apart
The Citadel Bulldogs #203 rush offense Furman Paladins #165 run defense
Pass game edge The Citadel Bulldogs 130 ranks
The Citadel Bulldogs #26 pass offense Furman Paladins #156 pass defense
Furman Paladins Balanced · 47% run Ball-control The Citadel Bulldogs Run-heavy · 81% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 57 rush ypg

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Furman Paladins
DB Eli Lipscomb 12 tkl #127 DB
DB Caleb Easterling 8 tkl · 1 PD · 2 INT #144 DB
WR Daniel Haughton 12 rec · 116 yds · 1 TD #140 WR
DL Joshua Stoneking 10 tkl · 2.0 TFL #265 DL
The Citadel Bulldogs
LB Zyion Brown 28 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.5 TFL #19 LB
RB Gavin Garcia 289 rush yds · 4 TD · 2 rec #21 RB
DB J'hari Mosley 18 tkl · 1 INT #150 DB
RB Sebastien Boyle 94 rush yds · 3 TD · 4 rec #137 RB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Furman Paladins -0.6 -5.3 +4.7 #188
The Citadel Bulldogs -14.5 -4.0 -10.5 #340

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Furman offense vs The Citadel defense+5.2 pts
The Citadel offense vs Furman defense-8.7 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-0.2 pts
Power projection before adjustment-11.5
Altitude · context only302 m lower than the visitor's home elevation

The projection carries an efficiency adjustment — a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.