Our side
MoneylineFUR to win
ours 23%
Projected score
33–21
FUR – CIT
2026-11-07 · 2:00 PM
Johnson Hagood Stadium · Charleston, SC
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Furman lead
47–32–2
· 81 meetings since 1913
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge The Citadel Bulldogs
63 ranks
Furman Paladins #214 rush offense
The Citadel Bulldogs #151 run defense
Pass game
edge Furman Paladins
94 ranks
Furman Paladins #165 pass offense
The Citadel Bulldogs #259 pass defense
Run game
even
38 ranks apart
The Citadel Bulldogs #203 rush offense
Furman Paladins #165 run defense
Pass game
edge The Citadel Bulldogs
130 ranks
The Citadel Bulldogs #26 pass offense
Furman Paladins #156 pass defense
Furman Paladins
Balanced · 47% run
Ball-control
The Citadel Bulldogs
Run-heavy · 81% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 57 rush ypg
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Furman Paladins
DB
Eli Lipscomb
12 tkl
#127 DB
DB
Caleb Easterling
8 tkl · 1 PD · 2 INT
#144 DB
WR
Daniel Haughton
12 rec · 116 yds · 1 TD
#140 WR
DL
Joshua Stoneking
10 tkl · 2.0 TFL
#265 DL
The Citadel Bulldogs
LB
Zyion Brown
28 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.5 TFL
#19 LB
RB
Gavin Garcia
289 rush yds · 4 TD · 2 rec
#21 RB
DB
J'hari Mosley
18 tkl · 1 INT
#150 DB
RB
Sebastien Boyle
94 rush yds · 3 TD · 4 rec
#137 RB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Furman offense vs The Citadel defense+5.2 pts
The Citadel offense vs Furman defense-8.7 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-0.2 pts
Power projection before adjustment-11.5
Altitude · context only302 m lower than the visitor's home elevation
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.