Our side
MoneylineALCN to win
ours 41%
Projected score
32–29
ALCN – SOU
2026-11-14 · 3:00 PM
A.W. Mumford Stadium · Baton Rouge, LA
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Alcorn State lead
14–9
· 23 meetings since 1977
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Alcorn State Braves
99 ranks
Alcorn State Braves #103 rush offense
Southern Jaguars #202 run defense
Pass game
even
13 ranks apart
Alcorn State Braves #195 pass offense
Southern Jaguars #182 pass defense
Run game
edge Alcorn State Braves
48 ranks
Southern Jaguars #113 rush offense
Alcorn State Braves #65 run defense
Pass game
edge Alcorn State Braves
192 ranks
Southern Jaguars #219 pass offense
Alcorn State Braves #27 pass defense
Alcorn State Braves
Run-heavy · 60% run
Ball-control
Southern Jaguars
Run-heavy · 65% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Alcorn State Braves
DB
Timothy Jasper
31 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#17 DB
WR
Tyree Kelly
11 rec · 231 yds · 3 TD
#100 WR
DL
Eric Thomas
6 tkl · 1.5 TFL
#189 DL
RB
Ernest Temple
187 rush yds · 2 TD · 7 rec
#78 RB
Southern Jaguars
DB
Tay James
8 tkl · 1 INT
#79 DB
DL
Ckelby Givens
6 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL
#119 DL
RB
Trey Holly
141 rush yds · 2 TD · 5 rec
#184 RB
DB
Ty Lee
9 tkl · 1 PD
#525 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Alcorn State offense vs Southern defense+7.2 pts
Southern offense vs Alcorn State defense+3.1 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-2.0 pts
Power projection before adjustment-1.6
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).