← Matchups

Tuskegee

· power -37.8 · #402
Our numberALST -34.2 no book has priced this game

Alabama State

· 2-1 (1-0) · power -7.5 · #270
Our side
MoneylineALST to win ours 98%
Projected score 11–45 TUSK – ALST
2026-11-26 · 3:00 PM ASU Football Stadium · Montgomery, AL Preseason estimate

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Alabama State lead 7–5 · 12 meetings since 2007
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Alabama State Hornets Run-heavy · 59% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 65 rush ypg

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all D1 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Tuskegee Golden Tigers
No graded players for this team in 2025.
Alabama State Hornets
RB Jamarie Hostzclaw 169 rush yds · 3 TD · 4 rec #111 RB
DB Ta'Shaun Sims 15 tkl · 1 PD #301 DB
DB Zion Crawford 8 tkl · 3 PD #406 DB
DL Jaylan Jarrett 6 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #542 DL

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Tuskegee Golden Tigers -37.8 -17.9 -20.0 #402
Alabama State Hornets -7.5 -4.8 -2.7 #270

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Tuskegee offense vs Alabama State defense-15.1 pts
Alabama State offense vs Tuskegee defense+15.2 pts
Rest · context onlyAway team on 63 more days rest

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.