Our side
MoneylineETSU to win
ours 86%
Projected score
20–38
SAM – ETSU
2026-11-07 · 1:00 PM
William B. Greene Jr. Stadium · Johnson City, TN
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
East Tennessee State and Samford split 10 (5–5)
· 10 meetings since 2016
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge East Tennessee State Buccaneers
161 ranks
Samford Bulldogs #263 rush offense
East Tennessee State Buccaneers #102 run defense
Pass game
edge East Tennessee State Buccaneers
54 ranks
Samford Bulldogs #242 pass offense
East Tennessee State Buccaneers #188 pass defense
Run game
edge East Tennessee State Buccaneers
146 ranks
East Tennessee State Buccaneers #72 rush offense
Samford Bulldogs #218 run defense
Pass game
even
17 ranks apart
East Tennessee State Buccaneers #175 pass offense
Samford Bulldogs #192 pass defense
Samford Bulldogs
Pass-heavy · 39% run
Ball-control
East Tennessee State Buccaneers
Balanced · 55% run
Avg pace
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Samford Bulldogs
DB
LaShon Young
21 tkl · 1 PD
#53 DB
DB
Jalen Nelson
25 tkl
#101 DB
WR
Marquise Henderson
9 rec · 218 yds · 1 TD
#92 WR
LB
Spencer Conn
23 tkl · 2.5 TFL
#90 LB
East Tennessee State Buccaneers
LB
Dre Delinois
32 tkl · 1.0 TFL
#54 LB
RB
TJ Peyton
253 rush yds · 3 TD · 3 rec
#42 RB
TE
Charlie Browder
11 rec · 137 yds · 1 TD
#22 TE
DL
Charles Woodard
13 tkl · 0.5 TFL
#153 DL
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Samford offense vs East Tennessee State defense-4.4 pts
East Tennessee State offense vs Samford defense+8.0 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+1.9 pts
Power projection before adjustment+15.6
Altitude · context only304 m higher than the visitor's home elevation
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.