Our side
MoneylineALST to win
ours 28%
Projected score
36–26
ALST – UAPB
2026-10-17 · 3:00 PM
Simmons Bank Field · Pine Bluff, AR
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Alabama State lead
9–2
· 11 meetings since 2007
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Alabama State Hornets
235 ranks
Alabama State Hornets #5 rush offense
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions #240 run defense
Pass game
edge Alabama State Hornets
225 ranks
Alabama State Hornets #1 pass offense
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions #226 pass defense
Run game
edge Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions
51 ranks
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions #195 rush offense
Alabama State Hornets #246 run defense
Pass game
edge Alabama State Hornets
212 ranks
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions #258 pass offense
Alabama State Hornets #46 pass defense
Alabama State Hornets
Run-heavy · 59% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 65 rush ypg
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions
Balanced · 54% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Alabama State Hornets
RB
Jamarie Hostzclaw
169 rush yds · 3 TD · 4 rec
#111 RB
DB
Ta'Shaun Sims
15 tkl · 1 PD
#301 DB
DB
Zion Crawford
8 tkl · 3 PD
#406 DB
DL
Jaylan Jarrett
6 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#542 DL
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions
DB
Michael Henderson
21 tkl · 3 PD · 1 INT
#7 DB
DL
Derick Simon Jr.
19 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 2.5 TFL
#75 DL
DL
Keiyhaun Wilks
13 tkl · 3.0 TFL
#188 DL
LB
Danarius Hilliard
26 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#142 LB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Alabama State offense vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff defense+10.6 pts
Arkansas-Pine Bluff offense vs Alabama State defense+0.0 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-1.5 pts
Power projection before adjustment-8.2
Rest · context onlyHome team on 7 more days rest
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.