Our side
MoneylineNICH to win
ours 66%
Projected score
24–31
SELA – NICH
2026-11-19 · 7:00 PM
John L. Guidry Stadium · Thibodaux, LA
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
SE Louisiana lead
12–9
· 21 meetings since 2005
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge SE Louisiana Lions
205 ranks
SE Louisiana Lions #44 rush offense
Nicholls Colonels #249 run defense
Pass game
even
36 ranks apart
SE Louisiana Lions #98 pass offense
Nicholls Colonels #62 pass defense
Run game
edge SE Louisiana Lions
121 ranks
Nicholls Colonels #198 rush offense
SE Louisiana Lions #77 run defense
Pass game
edge SE Louisiana Lions
204 ranks
Nicholls Colonels #212 pass offense
SE Louisiana Lions #8 pass defense
SE Louisiana Lions
Run-heavy · 59% run
Ball-control
Nicholls Colonels
Run-heavy · 59% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
SE Louisiana Lions
TE
Lonnie Shinn
6 rec · 73 yds · 2 TD
#24 TE
DL
Amiree Alexander
14 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#165 DL
LB
Trace Carter
23 tkl
#104 LB
DB
Carter Byrd
20 tkl · 1 PD
#214 DB
Nicholls Colonels
DB
Skylar Husband
20 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#71 DB
DL
Alex Villavaso
9 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#102 DL
LB
Kennon Loftin
24 tkl
#96 LB
WR
Jackson Dufrene
6 rec · 105 yds · 3 TD
#101 WR
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
SE Louisiana offense vs Nicholls defense-3.3 pts
Nicholls offense vs SE Louisiana defense+1.3 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-0.8 pts
Power projection before adjustment+7.6
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).