Our side
MoneylineSFA to win
ours 99%
Projected score
7–53
NWST – SFA
2026-11-19 · 7:00 PM
Homer Bryce Stadium · Nacogdoches, TX
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Stephen F. Austin lead
12–11
· 23 meetings since 1976
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
251 ranks
Northwestern State Demons #259 rush offense
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks #8 run defense
Pass game
edge Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
237 ranks
Northwestern State Demons #265 pass offense
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks #28 pass defense
Run game
edge Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
226 ranks
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks #39 rush offense
Northwestern State Demons #265 run defense
Pass game
edge Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
197 ranks
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks #65 pass offense
Northwestern State Demons #262 pass defense
Northwestern State Demons
Run-heavy · 63% run
Ball-control
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
Balanced · 49% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Northwestern State Demons
DL
Geoffrey Ojeh
7 tkl · 1.0 TFL
#296 DL
DB
Joe Natali
14 tkl
#481 DB
LB
Danny Sears
14 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 0.5 TFL
#370 LB
DB
Diego Sanchez
9 tkl · 1 PD
#676 DB
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
DB
Makai Frisby
8 tkl · 3 INT
#48 DB
K
Carlos Alvarado
6 FG · 12 XP · 30 pts
#9 K
DB
Jaiydyn Johnson
13 tkl · 3 PD
#66 DB
WR
Bugs Mortimer
8 rec · 161 yds · 2 TD
#84 WR
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Northwestern State offense vs Stephen F. Austin defense-16.3 pts
Stephen F. Austin offense vs Northwestern State defense+23.4 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+2.2 pts
Power projection before adjustment+44.0
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).