Our side
MoneylineSFA to win
ours 95%
Projected score
14–41
SELA – SFA
2026-10-24 · 6:00 PM
Homer Bryce Stadium · Nacogdoches, TX
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
SE Louisiana lead
7–6
· 13 meetings since 2005
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
36 ranks apart
SE Louisiana Lions #44 rush offense
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks #8 run defense
Pass game
edge Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
70 ranks
SE Louisiana Lions #98 pass offense
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks #28 pass defense
Run game
even
38 ranks apart
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks #39 rush offense
SE Louisiana Lions #77 run defense
Pass game
edge SE Louisiana Lions
57 ranks
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks #65 pass offense
SE Louisiana Lions #8 pass defense
SE Louisiana Lions
Run-heavy · 59% run
Ball-control
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
Balanced · 49% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
SE Louisiana Lions
TE
Lonnie Shinn
6 rec · 73 yds · 2 TD
#24 TE
DL
Amiree Alexander
14 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#165 DL
LB
Trace Carter
23 tkl
#104 LB
DB
Carter Byrd
20 tkl · 1 PD
#214 DB
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
DB
Makai Frisby
8 tkl · 3 INT
#48 DB
K
Carlos Alvarado
6 FG · 12 XP · 30 pts
#9 K
DB
Jaiydyn Johnson
13 tkl · 3 PD
#66 DB
WR
Bugs Mortimer
8 rec · 161 yds · 2 TD
#84 WR
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
SE Louisiana offense vs Stephen F. Austin defense-11.9 pts
Stephen F. Austin offense vs SE Louisiana defense+9.9 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+1.1 pts
Power projection before adjustment+25.5
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).