Our side
MoneylineSFA to win
ours 14%
Projected score
36–19
SFA – NICH
2026-10-17 · 4:00 PM
John L. Guidry Stadium · Thibodaux, LA
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Stephen F. Austin lead
12–6
· 18 meetings since 2003
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
210 ranks
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks #39 rush offense
Nicholls Colonels #249 run defense
Pass game
even
3 ranks apart
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks #65 pass offense
Nicholls Colonels #62 pass defense
Run game
edge Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
190 ranks
Nicholls Colonels #198 rush offense
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks #8 run defense
Pass game
edge Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
184 ranks
Nicholls Colonels #212 pass offense
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks #28 pass defense
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
Balanced · 49% run
Ball-control
Nicholls Colonels
Run-heavy · 59% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
DB
Makai Frisby
8 tkl · 3 INT
#48 DB
K
Carlos Alvarado
6 FG · 12 XP · 30 pts
#9 K
DB
Jaiydyn Johnson
13 tkl · 3 PD
#66 DB
WR
Bugs Mortimer
8 rec · 161 yds · 2 TD
#84 WR
Nicholls Colonels
DB
Skylar Husband
20 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#71 DB
DL
Alex Villavaso
9 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#102 DL
LB
Kennon Loftin
24 tkl
#96 LB
WR
Jackson Dufrene
6 rec · 105 yds · 3 TD
#101 WR
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Stephen F. Austin offense vs Nicholls defense+7.9 pts
Nicholls offense vs Stephen F. Austin defense-9.4 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-2.4 pts
Power projection before adjustment-15.1
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).