← Matchups

Alabama A&M

· 2-1 · power -15.8 · #354
Our numberAAMU -10.8 no book has priced this game

Mississippi Valley State

· 1-2 · power -27.0 · #391
Our side
MoneylineAAMU to win ours 25%
Projected score 34–24 AAMU – MVSU
2026-11-21 · 3:00 PM Rice-Totten Stadium · Itta Bena, MS Conference game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Alabama A&M lead 15–2 · 17 meetings since 2007
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 14 ranks apart
Alabama A&M Bulldogs #219 rush offense Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils #205 run defense
Pass game edge Alabama A&M Bulldogs 80 ranks
Alabama A&M Bulldogs #176 pass offense Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils #256 pass defense
Run game edge Alabama A&M Bulldogs 131 ranks
Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils #261 rush offense Alabama A&M Bulldogs #130 run defense
Pass game even 25 ranks apart
Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils #236 pass offense Alabama A&M Bulldogs #261 pass defense
Alabama A&M Bulldogs Balanced · 48% run Ball-control Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils Balanced · 45% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 38 rush ypg

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Alabama A&M Bulldogs
DB Jeremiah Hudson-Davis 35 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT #10 DB
DL Kylon Roberts 17 tkl · 2.5 sacks · 4.0 TFL #54 DL
WR Jarel Williams 16 rec · 279 yds · 2 TD #47 WR
DL Arenza Davis 12 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.5 TFL #113 DL
Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils
DB Tyrell Johnson 6 tkl · 1 INT #81 DB
LB Douglas Franklin 15 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.5 TFL #146 LB
TE Jaylen King 12 rec · 85 yds · 1 TD #53 TE
DB Jamari Stokes 11 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT #322 DB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Alabama A&M Bulldogs -15.8 -5.6 -10.2 #354
Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils -27.0 -13.7 -13.2 #391

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Alabama A&M offense vs Mississippi Valley State defense+7.6 pts
Mississippi Valley State offense vs Alabama A&M defense-3.5 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-2.1 pts
Power projection before adjustment-8.7

The projection carries an efficiency adjustment — a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).