← Matchups

Stetson

· 1-2 · power -21.2 · #383
Our numberMORE -9.1 no book has priced this game

Morehead State

· 1-2 · power -15.1 · #345
Our side
MoneylineMORE to win ours 71%
Projected score 27–36 STET – MORE
2026-10-24 · 2:00 PM Phil Simms Stadium · Morehead, KY Conference game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Stetson and Morehead State split 8 (4–4) · 8 meetings since 2014
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 25 ranks apart
Stetson Hatters #238 rush offense Morehead State Eagles #263 run defense
Pass game edge Morehead State Eagles 78 ranks
Stetson Hatters #256 pass offense Morehead State Eagles #178 pass defense
Run game even 7 ranks apart
Morehead State Eagles #250 rush offense Stetson Hatters #243 run defense
Pass game edge Morehead State Eagles 138 ranks
Morehead State Eagles #94 pass offense Stetson Hatters #232 pass defense
Stetson Hatters Run-heavy · 71% run Ball-control Morehead State Eagles Balanced · 55% run Ball-control

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Stetson Hatters
DB Dylan Kelly 15 tkl · 1 PD #227 DB
DL Alex Yearwood 7 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #344 DL
DB Johnny DeLancy 6 tkl · 1 PD #363 DB
WR Landon Farco 5 rec · 95 yds · 1 TD #339 WR
Morehead State Eagles
DB Tazion McQueen 10 tkl · 1 PD · 2 INT #96 DB
DB Sidney Webb 4 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT #125 DB
DB Isaiah Watts 3 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT #148 DB
WR Cross Watson 4 rec · 132 yds · 3 TD #207 WR

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Stetson Hatters -21.2 -8.1 -13.0 #383
Morehead State Eagles -15.1 -2.7 -12.4 #345

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Stetson offense vs Morehead State defense+4.3 pts
Morehead State offense vs Stetson defense+10.3 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 645 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.