Final
UT R 28 · NICH 31
ML L
our logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
MoneylineUT R to win logged
ours 39%
Our number: UT R by 10.0 — UT R to win.
Projected score
31–26
UT R – NICH
2026-09-12 · 7:00 PM
John L. Guidry Stadium · Thibodaux, LA
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
UT Rio Grande Valley lead
1–0
· 1 meeting since 2025
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros
221 ranks
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros #28 rush offense
Nicholls Colonels #249 run defense
Pass game
even
40 ranks apart
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros #22 pass offense
Nicholls Colonels #62 pass defense
Run game
edge UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros
142 ranks
Nicholls Colonels #198 rush offense
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros #56 run defense
Pass game
edge UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros
200 ranks
Nicholls Colonels #212 pass offense
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros #12 pass defense
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros
Balanced · 52% run
Ball-control
Nicholls Colonels
Run-heavy · 59% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros
WR
Kyran Lee
18 rec · 301 yds · 2 TD
#27 WR
DB
Alijah Prosser
14 tkl · 5 PD
#68 DB
LB
Spencer Rich
27 tkl · 1.0 TFL
#72 LB
K
Brysen Gardner
6 FG · 9 XP · 27 pts
#16 K
Nicholls Colonels
DB
Skylar Husband
20 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#71 DB
DL
Alex Villavaso
9 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#102 DL
LB
Kennon Loftin
24 tkl
#96 LB
WR
Jackson Dufrene
6 rec · 105 yds · 3 TD
#101 WR
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
UT Rio Grande Valley offense vs Nicholls defense+4.3 pts
Nicholls offense vs UT Rio Grande Valley defense-3.4 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 508 mi
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.