Our side
MoneylineTAR to win
ours 15%
Projected score
38–21
TAR – UNA
2026-11-21 · 4:00 PM
Braly Stadium · Florence, AL
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Tarleton State lead
4–0
· 4 meetings since 2022
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Tarleton State Texans
131 ranks
Tarleton State Texans #64 rush offense
North Alabama Lions #195 run defense
Pass game
edge Tarleton State Texans
249 ranks
Tarleton State Texans #11 pass offense
North Alabama Lions #260 pass defense
Run game
even
37 ranks apart
North Alabama Lions #125 rush offense
Tarleton State Texans #88 run defense
Pass game
edge Tarleton State Texans
186 ranks
North Alabama Lions #210 pass offense
Tarleton State Texans #24 pass defense
Tarleton State Texans
Balanced · 53% run
Ball-control
North Alabama Lions
Run-heavy · 63% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 52 rush ypg
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Tarleton State Texans
RB
Tylan Hines
575 rush yds · 4 TD · 6 rec
#3 RB
WR
Marquis Willis
19 rec · 320 yds · 3 TD
#11 WR
DB
Fredd Adams
21 tkl · 5 PD
#25 DB
P
Charlie Mullen
7 punts · 44.7 yd avg
#4 P
North Alabama Lions
DB
Tae Martin
23 tkl · 4 PD
#11 DB
DL
Avery Howard
17 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 5.0 TFL
#20 DL
WR
Xavier Johnson
19 rec · 386 yds · 2 TD
#14 WR
DL
Cayden Adkins
11 tkl · 3.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#29 DL
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Tarleton State offense vs North Alabama defense+11.6 pts
North Alabama offense vs Tarleton State defense-6.4 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-0.8 pts
Power projection before adjustment-15.8
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 633 mi
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.