Our side
MoneylineSTMN to win
ours 92%
Projected score
19–42
DAV – STMN
2026-10-31 · 2:00 PM
O'Shaughnessy Stadium · Saint Paul, MN
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
St. Thomas (MN) lead
2–1
· 3 meetings since 2021
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge St. Thomas Tommies
233 ranks
Davidson Wildcats #247 rush offense
St. Thomas Tommies #14 run defense
Pass game
edge Davidson Wildcats
96 ranks
Davidson Wildcats #145 pass offense
St. Thomas Tommies #241 pass defense
Run game
edge St. Thomas Tommies
115 ranks
St. Thomas Tommies #146 rush offense
Davidson Wildcats #261 run defense
Pass game
edge St. Thomas Tommies
155 ranks
St. Thomas Tommies #48 pass offense
Davidson Wildcats #203 pass defense
Davidson Wildcats
Run-heavy · 62% run
Ball-control
St. Thomas Tommies
Run-heavy · 60% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 36 rush ypg
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Davidson Wildcats
WR
Jacary Lightsey
24 rec · 233 yds · 1 TD
#50 WR
DL
Danzel Chukwuemeka
11 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL
#200 DL
DL
Jarmal Gilmore
11 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL
#223 DL
TE
Jack Perozek
7 rec · 62 yds · 1 TD
#51 TE
St. Thomas Tommies
DB
Peyton Himley
14 tkl · 1 PD · 2 INT
#85 DB
LB
Malachi Boadi-Aboagye
8 tkl · 1.5 TFL
#60 LB
WR
Pierce McCrary
13 rec · 172 yds · 1 TD
#142 WR
DL
Evan Tyler
7 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#282 DL
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Davidson offense vs St. Thomas-Minnesota defense-5.4 pts
St. Thomas-Minnesota offense vs Davidson defense+13.6 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+0.5 pts
Power projection before adjustment+22.5
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 917 mi
Rest · context onlyAway team on 7 more days rest
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.