← Matchups

Butler

· 2-1 · power -3.5 · #223
Our numberBUT -6.7 no book has priced this game

Drake

· 0-3 · power -12.8 · #324
Our side
MoneylineBUT to win ours 34%
Projected score 32–26 BUT – DRKE
2026-10-24 · 1:00 PM Drake Stadium (IA) · Des Moines, IA Conference game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Drake lead 18–4–1 · 23 meetings since 1932
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 40 ranks apart
Butler Bulldogs #139 rush offense Drake Bulldogs #99 run defense
Pass game even 34 ranks apart
Butler Bulldogs #113 pass offense Drake Bulldogs #147 pass defense
Run game even 32 ranks apart
Drake Bulldogs #100 rush offense Butler Bulldogs #132 run defense
Pass game edge Drake Bulldogs 142 ranks
Drake Bulldogs #89 pass offense Butler Bulldogs #231 pass defense
Butler Bulldogs Run-heavy · 62% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 62 rush ypg Drake Bulldogs Run-heavy · 69% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 34 rush ypg

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Butler Bulldogs
DL Okemdi Eze 6 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #316 DL
WR Nick Munson 5 rec · 73 yds · 2 TD #234 WR
DB Steven Stephany 8 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT #457 DB
RB Desmin Jackson 88 rush yds · 2 TD · 1 rec #209 RB
Drake Bulldogs
LB J.R. Flood 35 tkl · 0.5 TFL #37 LB
DL Tyson Shivers 10 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #77 DL
WR Willis Nofsinger 18 rec · 285 yds · 1 TD #53 WR
WR Hank Foley 14 rec · 215 yds · 1 TD #120 WR

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Butler Bulldogs -3.5 -0.8 -2.7 #223
Drake Bulldogs -12.8 -5.6 -7.2 #324

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Butler offense vs Drake defense+6.4 pts
Drake offense vs Butler defense-2.9 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 410 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.