← Matchups

Western Illinois

· 1-2 · power -9.9 · #294
Our numberWIU -1.7 no book has priced this game

Lindenwood

· 1-2 (1-0) · power -11.9 · #319
Our side
MoneylineWIU to win ours 46%
Projected score 31–30 WIU – LIN
2026-11-21 · 3:00 PM Hunter Stadium · Saint Charles, MO Conference game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Lindenwood lead 2–1 · 3 meetings since 2023
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 12 ranks apart
Western Illinois Leathernecks #182 rush offense Lindenwood Lions #170 run defense
Pass game edge Lindenwood Lions 68 ranks
Western Illinois Leathernecks #240 pass offense Lindenwood Lions #172 pass defense
Run game even 35 ranks apart
Lindenwood Lions #180 rush offense Western Illinois Leathernecks #215 run defense
Pass game edge Lindenwood Lions 142 ranks
Lindenwood Lions #60 pass offense Western Illinois Leathernecks #202 pass defense
Western Illinois Leathernecks Balanced · 46% run Ball-control Lindenwood Lions Run-heavy · 58% run Ball-control

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Western Illinois Leathernecks
LB Nick Reinicke 18 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #57 LB
DB Aa'zoriyon Bonner 9 tkl · 1 PD #170 DB
DB Jouvenson Romulus 9 tkl · 1 INT #376 DB
DB Brayden Hapner 8 tkl · 2 PD #458 DB
Lindenwood Lions
DL Mason Burke 8 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.5 TFL #152 DL
DL King Smith 8 tkl · 2.5 sacks · 4.0 TFL #182 DL
DB Isaac Edwards 7 tkl · 1 INT #378 DB
DL David Amaliri 10 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #451 DL

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Western Illinois Leathernecks -9.9 -1.1 -8.8 #294
Lindenwood Lions -11.9 -4.9 -7.1 #319

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Western Illinois offense vs Lindenwood defense+5.9 pts
Lindenwood offense vs Western Illinois defense+3.9 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-2.4 pts
Power projection before adjustment+0.7

The projection carries an efficiency adjustment — a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).