← Matchups

UT Martin

· 1-2 · power -8.1 · #278
Our numberSEMO -1.6 no book has priced this game

Southeast Missouri State

· 1-2 · power -7.0 · #263
Our side
MoneylineSEMO to win ours 54%
Projected score 25–26 UTM – SEMO
2026-11-21 · 2:00 PM Houck Field · Cape Girardeau, MO Conference game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series UT Martin lead 13–9 · 22 meetings since 2003
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Southeast Missouri State Redhawks 95 ranks
UT Martin Skyhawks #199 rush offense Southeast Missouri State Redhawks #104 run defense
Pass game edge UT Martin Skyhawks 54 ranks
UT Martin Skyhawks #108 pass offense Southeast Missouri State Redhawks #162 pass defense
Run game edge UT Martin Skyhawks 158 ranks
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks #243 rush offense UT Martin Skyhawks #85 run defense
Pass game edge Southeast Missouri State Redhawks 123 ranks
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks #125 pass offense UT Martin Skyhawks #248 pass defense
UT Martin Skyhawks Run-heavy · 63% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 38 rush ypg Southeast Missouri State Redhawks Balanced · 45% run Avg pace

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
UT Martin Skyhawks
P Max Zuluaga 8 punts · 51.4 yd avg #1 P
DB Trey Cotton 23 tkl · 1 INT #12 DB
DL Chris Wilson 14 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 2.0 TFL #78 DL
DB Jamal Mayers 12 tkl · 3 PD #73 DB
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
DB DJ Delmore 22 tkl · 2 PD #20 DB
DL Timothy Maxson 12 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 4.0 TFL #72 DL
P Teagan Cobb 15 punts · 45.4 yd avg #12 P
WR John Anthony Jr. 10 rec · 219 yds · 2 TD #98 WR

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
UT Martin Skyhawks -8.1 -6.7 -1.4 #278
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks -7.0 -5.5 -1.5 #263

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
UT Martin offense vs Southeast Missouri State defense-5.2 pts
Southeast Missouri State offense vs UT Martin defense-4.1 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-2.3 pts
Power projection before adjustment+3.9

The projection carries an efficiency adjustment — a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).