← Matchups

UT Martin

· 1-2 · power -8.1 · #278
Our numberWIU -0.4 no book has priced this game

Western Illinois

· 1-2 · power -9.9 · #294
Our side
MoneylineWIU to win ours 51%
Projected score 28–29 UTM – WIU
2026-10-24 · 4:00 PM Hanson Field · Macomb, IL Conference game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series UT Martin lead 3–1 · 4 meetings since 2003
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 16 ranks apart
UT Martin Skyhawks #199 rush offense Western Illinois Leathernecks #215 run defense
Pass game edge UT Martin Skyhawks 94 ranks
UT Martin Skyhawks #108 pass offense Western Illinois Leathernecks #202 pass defense
Run game edge UT Martin Skyhawks 97 ranks
Western Illinois Leathernecks #182 rush offense UT Martin Skyhawks #85 run defense
Pass game even 8 ranks apart
Western Illinois Leathernecks #240 pass offense UT Martin Skyhawks #248 pass defense
UT Martin Skyhawks Run-heavy · 63% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 38 rush ypg Western Illinois Leathernecks Balanced · 46% run Ball-control

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
UT Martin Skyhawks
P Max Zuluaga 8 punts · 51.4 yd avg #1 P
DB Trey Cotton 23 tkl · 1 INT #12 DB
DL Chris Wilson 14 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 2.0 TFL #78 DL
DB Jamal Mayers 12 tkl · 3 PD #73 DB
Western Illinois Leathernecks
LB Nick Reinicke 18 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #57 LB
DB Aa'zoriyon Bonner 9 tkl · 1 PD #170 DB
DB Jouvenson Romulus 9 tkl · 1 INT #376 DB
DB Brayden Hapner 8 tkl · 2 PD #458 DB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
UT Martin Skyhawks -8.1 -6.7 -1.4 #278
Western Illinois Leathernecks -9.9 -1.1 -8.8 #294

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
UT Martin offense vs Western Illinois defense+2.1 pts
Western Illinois offense vs UT Martin defense+0.3 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-0.6 pts
Power projection before adjustment+1.0

The projection carries an efficiency adjustment — a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).