Our side
MoneylineSEMO to win
ours 26%
Projected score
29–18
SEMO – TNST
2026-11-07 · 3:30 PM
Nissan Stadium · Nashville, TN
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Southeast Missouri State lead
11–8
· 19 meetings since 2003
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Tennessee State Tigers
132 ranks
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks #243 rush offense
Tennessee State Tigers #111 run defense
Pass game
even
33 ranks apart
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks #125 pass offense
Tennessee State Tigers #92 pass defense
Run game
edge Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
161 ranks
Tennessee State Tigers #265 rush offense
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks #104 run defense
Pass game
edge Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
93 ranks
Tennessee State Tigers #255 pass offense
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks #162 pass defense
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
Balanced · 45% run
Avg pace
Tennessee State Tigers
Balanced · 54% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
DB
DJ Delmore
22 tkl · 2 PD
#20 DB
DL
Timothy Maxson
12 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 4.0 TFL
#72 DL
P
Teagan Cobb
15 punts · 45.4 yd avg
#12 P
WR
John Anthony Jr.
10 rec · 219 yds · 2 TD
#98 WR
Tennessee State Tigers
DB
Brendan Hale
21 tkl · 2 PD
#93 DB
DL
Bryce Gray
11 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.5 TFL
#244 DL
WR
Jayden Guy
15 rec · 202 yds
#212 WR
P
Truette Tumey
15 punts · 43.7 yd avg
#32 P
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Southeast Missouri State offense vs Tennessee State defense-2.4 pts
Tennessee State offense vs Southeast Missouri State defense-14.5 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-0.9 pts
Power projection before adjustment-9.7
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).