← Matchups

UT Martin

· 1-2 · power -8.1 · #278
Our numberUTM -2.8 no book has priced this game

Charleston Southern

· 1-2 (0-1) · power -11.7 · #316
Our side
MoneylineUTM to win ours 43%
Projected score 24–21 UTM – CHSO
2026-11-07 · 2:00 PM Buccaneer Field · Charleston, SC Conference game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series UT Martin lead 3–0 · 3 meetings since 2023
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Charleston Southern Buccaneers 128 ranks
UT Martin Skyhawks #199 rush offense Charleston Southern Buccaneers #71 run defense
Pass game edge UT Martin Skyhawks 96 ranks
UT Martin Skyhawks #108 pass offense Charleston Southern Buccaneers #204 pass defense
Run game edge UT Martin Skyhawks 125 ranks
Charleston Southern Buccaneers #210 rush offense UT Martin Skyhawks #85 run defense
Pass game edge Charleston Southern Buccaneers 91 ranks
Charleston Southern Buccaneers #157 pass offense UT Martin Skyhawks #248 pass defense
UT Martin Skyhawks Run-heavy · 63% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 38 rush ypg Charleston Southern Buccaneers Balanced · 57% run Ball-control

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
UT Martin Skyhawks
P Max Zuluaga 8 punts · 51.4 yd avg #1 P
DB Trey Cotton 23 tkl · 1 INT #12 DB
DL Chris Wilson 14 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 2.0 TFL #78 DL
DB Jamal Mayers 12 tkl · 3 PD #73 DB
Charleston Southern Buccaneers
LB Tristan Lennon 19 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL #58 LB
LB Steve Zayachkowsky 22 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL #80 LB
DL Josiah Wyatt 17 tkl · 1.5 TFL #212 DL
DL CJ Landrum 13 tkl · 0.5 TFL #521 DL

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
UT Martin Skyhawks -8.1 -6.7 -1.4 #278
Charleston Southern Buccaneers -11.7 -14.6 +3.0 #316

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
UT Martin offense vs Charleston Southern defense-9.7 pts
Charleston Southern offense vs UT Martin defense-13.2 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-2.0 pts
Power projection before adjustment-0.8
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 551 mi

The projection carries an efficiency adjustment — a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.