Our side
MoneylineCARK to win
ours 82%
Projected score
21–36
WGA – CARK
2026-11-07 · 5:00 PM
Estes Stadium · Conway, AR
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Central Arkansas and West Georgia split 2 (1–1)
· 2 meetings since 2024
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge West Georgia Wolves
83 ranks
West Georgia Wolves #85 rush offense
Central Arkansas Bears #168 run defense
Pass game
even
31 ranks apart
West Georgia Wolves #207 pass offense
Central Arkansas Bears #238 pass defense
Run game
edge West Georgia Wolves
140 ranks
Central Arkansas Bears #143 rush offense
West Georgia Wolves #3 run defense
Pass game
edge West Georgia Wolves
78 ranks
Central Arkansas Bears #185 pass offense
West Georgia Wolves #107 pass defense
West Georgia Wolves
Balanced · 58% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 44 rush ypg
Central Arkansas Bears
Balanced · 54% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
West Georgia Wolves
DL
Dalton Epps
12 tkl · 3.0 TFL
#291 DL
LB
Chidu Bekee
19 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 1.5 TFL
#164 LB
LB
Andrew Ruffin
19 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#174 LB
WR
T.J. Lockley
12 rec · 120 yds · 1 TD
#252 WR
Central Arkansas Bears
DB
Bryson Adamoh
5 tkl · 3 PD · 3 INT
#6 DB
LB
Ashtyn Williams
28 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#70 LB
DL
Jakobe Shell
9 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL
#129 DL
DL
Trevion Traylor
14 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 1.5 TFL
#138 DL
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
West Georgia offense vs Central Arkansas defense-4.2 pts
Central Arkansas offense vs West Georgia defense+5.6 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+1.7 pts
Power projection before adjustment+13.0
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 431 mi
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.