Our side
MoneylineTAR to win
ours 86%
Projected score
23–40
CARK – TAR
2026-10-17 · 7:00 PM
Tarleton Memorial Stadium · Stephenville, TX
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Tarleton State lead
4–0
· 4 meetings since 2021
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Tarleton State Texans
55 ranks
Central Arkansas Bears #143 rush offense
Tarleton State Texans #88 run defense
Pass game
edge Tarleton State Texans
161 ranks
Central Arkansas Bears #185 pass offense
Tarleton State Texans #24 pass defense
Run game
edge Tarleton State Texans
104 ranks
Tarleton State Texans #64 rush offense
Central Arkansas Bears #168 run defense
Pass game
edge Tarleton State Texans
227 ranks
Tarleton State Texans #11 pass offense
Central Arkansas Bears #238 pass defense
Central Arkansas Bears
Balanced · 54% run
Ball-control
Tarleton State Texans
Balanced · 53% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Central Arkansas Bears
DB
Bryson Adamoh
5 tkl · 3 PD · 3 INT
#6 DB
LB
Ashtyn Williams
28 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#70 LB
DL
Jakobe Shell
9 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL
#129 DL
DL
Trevion Traylor
14 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 1.5 TFL
#138 DL
Tarleton State Texans
RB
Tylan Hines
575 rush yds · 4 TD · 6 rec
#3 RB
WR
Marquis Willis
19 rec · 320 yds · 3 TD
#11 WR
DB
Fredd Adams
21 tkl · 5 PD
#25 DB
P
Charlie Mullen
7 punts · 44.7 yd avg
#4 P
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Central Arkansas offense vs Tarleton State defense-0.3 pts
Tarleton State offense vs Central Arkansas defense+14.5 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-0.4 pts
Power projection before adjustment+18.1
Altitude · context only302 m higher than the visitor's home elevation
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.