Our side
MoneylineNAU to win
ours 75%
Projected score
22–33
UNCO – NAU
2026-11-21 · 4:00 PM
J. Lawrence Walkup Skydome · Flagstaff, AZ
Conference game
Indoors
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Northern Arizona lead
13–5
· 18 meetings since 2006
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
36 ranks apart
Northern Colorado Bears #216 rush offense
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks #252 run defense
Pass game
even
15 ranks apart
Northern Colorado Bears #196 pass offense
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks #181 pass defense
Run game
edge Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
65 ranks
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks #129 rush offense
Northern Colorado Bears #194 run defense
Pass game
even
26 ranks apart
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks #76 pass offense
Northern Colorado Bears #102 pass defense
Northern Colorado Bears
Balanced · 52% run
Avg pace
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
Balanced · 53% run
Avg pace
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Northern Colorado Bears
DB
Franky Morales
18 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
#91 DB
DL
Dominic Butts
10 tkl · 4.0 TFL
#122 DL
DL
Blake Weslin
8 tkl · 1.0 TFL
#192 DL
DL
Ezra Ekuban
6 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#226 DL
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
DB
Deliyon Freeman
23 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#33 DB
DB
Jahaad Fort
16 tkl · 2 PD · 2 INT
#43 DB
DB
Shoes Brinkley
27 tkl · 1 PD
#60 DB
LB
Jaiden Letua
25 tkl · 1.0 TFL
#43 LB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Northern Colorado offense vs Northern Arizona defense-6.4 pts
Northern Arizona offense vs Northern Colorado defense+3.8 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-2.2 pts
Power projection before adjustment+13.3
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 523 mi
Altitude · context only650 m higher than the visitor's home elevation
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.