Our side
MoneylineNAU to win
ours 82%
Projected score
23–38
PRST – NAU
2026-10-17 · 7:00 PM
J. Lawrence Walkup Skydome · Flagstaff, AZ
Conference game
Indoors
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Northern Arizona lead
9–5
· 14 meetings since 2004
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
6 ranks apart
Portland State Vikings #258 rush offense
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks #252 run defense
Pass game
even
43 ranks apart
Portland State Vikings #224 pass offense
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks #181 pass defense
Run game
edge Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
133 ranks
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks #129 rush offense
Portland State Vikings #262 run defense
Pass game
edge Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
174 ranks
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks #76 pass offense
Portland State Vikings #250 pass defense
Portland State Vikings
Balanced · 56% run
Ball-control
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
Balanced · 53% run
Avg pace
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Portland State Vikings
DB
Lono Solomon
19 tkl · 2 PD
#23 DB
DB
Isaac Redford
17 tkl · 2 PD · 2 INT
#24 DB
TE
Tanner Beaman
16 rec · 157 yds · 1 TD
#7 TE
WR
Terence Loville
15 rec · 221 yds · 1 TD
#70 WR
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
DB
Deliyon Freeman
23 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#33 DB
DB
Jahaad Fort
16 tkl · 2 PD · 2 INT
#43 DB
DB
Shoes Brinkley
27 tkl · 1 PD
#60 DB
LB
Jaiden Letua
25 tkl · 1.0 TFL
#43 LB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Portland State offense vs Northern Arizona defense-1.1 pts
Northern Arizona offense vs Portland State defense+11.9 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-1.3 pts
Power projection before adjustment+16.3
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 928 mi
Altitude · context only2,040 m higher than the visitor's home elevation
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.