Final
UIW 28 · NAU 38
ML L
our logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
MoneylineUIW to win logged
live now: NAU to win — the pick stands, the number moved · ours 57%
Our number: UIW by 0.3 — UIW to win.
Projected score
29–32
UIW – NAU
2026-09-12 · 5:00 PM
J. Lawrence Walkup Skydome · Flagstaff, AZ
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Northern Arizona and Incarnate Word split 2 (1–1)
· 2 meetings since 2024
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Incarnate Word Cardinals
92 ranks
Incarnate Word Cardinals #160 rush offense
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks #252 run defense
Pass game
even
9 ranks apart
Incarnate Word Cardinals #172 pass offense
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks #181 pass defense
Run game
edge Incarnate Word Cardinals
78 ranks
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks #129 rush offense
Incarnate Word Cardinals #51 run defense
Pass game
edge Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
93 ranks
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks #76 pass offense
Incarnate Word Cardinals #169 pass defense
Incarnate Word Cardinals
Balanced · 52% run
Avg pace
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
Balanced · 53% run
Avg pace
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Incarnate Word Cardinals
DL
Jeremiah Young
7 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#28 DL
RB
Lontrell Turner
153 rush yds · 3 TD · 1 rec
#60 RB
LB
Christian Barney
18 tkl · 1.0 TFL
#103 LB
WR
Isaiah Champagne
12 rec · 141 yds · 1 TD
#159 WR
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
DB
Deliyon Freeman
23 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#33 DB
DB
Jahaad Fort
16 tkl · 2 PD · 2 INT
#43 DB
DB
Shoes Brinkley
27 tkl · 1 PD
#60 DB
LB
Jaiden Letua
25 tkl · 1.0 TFL
#43 LB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Incarnate Word offense vs Northern Arizona defense+5.3 pts
Northern Arizona offense vs Incarnate Word defense+5.4 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 864 mi
Altitude · context only1,897 m higher than the visitor's home elevation
Rest · context onlyAway team on 7 more days rest
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.