Our side
MoneylineAPSU to win
ours 22%
Projected score
34–22
APSU – UNA
2026-10-24 · 7:00 PM
Braly Stadium · Florence, AL
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Austin Peay lead
4–0
· 4 meetings since 2022
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Austin Peay Governors
173 ranks
Austin Peay Governors #22 rush offense
North Alabama Lions #195 run defense
Pass game
edge Austin Peay Governors
232 ranks
Austin Peay Governors #28 pass offense
North Alabama Lions #260 pass defense
Run game
even
24 ranks apart
North Alabama Lions #125 rush offense
Austin Peay Governors #101 run defense
Pass game
edge Austin Peay Governors
147 ranks
North Alabama Lions #210 pass offense
Austin Peay Governors #63 pass defense
Austin Peay Governors
Balanced · 54% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 62 rush ypg
North Alabama Lions
Run-heavy · 63% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 52 rush ypg
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Austin Peay Governors
DL
Demoris Jenkins
8 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 1.5 TFL
#55 DL
WR
Denver Harper
7 rec · 256 yds · 4 TD
#45 WR
DB
Trevor Hardy
21 tkl · 1 PD
#100 DB
DL
Malik Denkins
7 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#210 DL
North Alabama Lions
DB
Tae Martin
23 tkl · 4 PD
#11 DB
DL
Avery Howard
17 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 5.0 TFL
#20 DL
WR
Xavier Johnson
19 rec · 386 yds · 2 TD
#14 WR
DL
Cayden Adkins
11 tkl · 3.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#29 DL
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Austin Peay offense vs North Alabama defense+6.5 pts
North Alabama offense vs Austin Peay defense-7.0 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-1.2 pts
Power projection before adjustment-11.1
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).