Our side
MoneylineTAR to win
ours 82%
Projected score
20–35
ACU – TAR
2026-11-07 · 7:00 PM
Tarleton Memorial Stadium · Stephenville, TX
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Abilene Christian lead
4–2
· 6 meetings since 2013
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
10 ranks apart
Abilene Christian Wildcats #98 rush offense
Tarleton State Texans #88 run defense
Pass game
edge Tarleton State Texans
129 ranks
Abilene Christian Wildcats #153 pass offense
Tarleton State Texans #24 pass defense
Run game
edge Tarleton State Texans
67 ranks
Tarleton State Texans #64 rush offense
Abilene Christian Wildcats #131 run defense
Pass game
edge Tarleton State Texans
118 ranks
Tarleton State Texans #11 pass offense
Abilene Christian Wildcats #129 pass defense
Abilene Christian Wildcats
Balanced · 53% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 31 rush ypg
Tarleton State Texans
Balanced · 53% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Abilene Christian Wildcats
DB
Dillon Williams
29 tkl · 1 PD
#9 DB
DB
Javeon Wilcox
27 tkl · 1 INT
#37 DB
DL
Hudson Page
15 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#76 DL
WR
Cristian Driver
18 rec · 224 yds · 1 TD
#46 WR
Tarleton State Texans
RB
Tylan Hines
575 rush yds · 4 TD · 6 rec
#3 RB
WR
Marquis Willis
19 rec · 320 yds · 3 TD
#11 WR
DB
Fredd Adams
21 tkl · 5 PD
#25 DB
P
Charlie Mullen
7 punts · 44.7 yd avg
#4 P
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Abilene Christian offense vs Tarleton State defense-5.4 pts
Tarleton State offense vs Abilene Christian defense+4.6 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+1.8 pts
Power projection before adjustment+13.2
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).