Our side
MoneylineVILL to win
ours 56%
Projected score
25–28
COLG – VILL
2026-09-26 · 2:30 PM
Villanova Stadium · Philadelphia, PA
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Villanova lead
5–1
· 6 meetings since 1978
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Villanova Wildcats
50 ranks
Colgate Raiders #89 rush offense
Villanova Wildcats #39 run defense
Pass game
edge Villanova Wildcats
57 ranks
Colgate Raiders #112 pass offense
Villanova Wildcats #55 pass defense
Run game
edge Villanova Wildcats
146 ranks
Villanova Wildcats #54 rush offense
Colgate Raiders #200 run defense
Pass game
edge Villanova Wildcats
136 ranks
Villanova Wildcats #82 pass offense
Colgate Raiders #218 pass defense
Colgate Raiders
Balanced · 45% run
Avg pace
Villanova Wildcats
Run-heavy · 59% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Colgate Raiders
LB
Christian Magliacano
20 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 4.0 TFL
#20 LB
RB
Danny Shaban
395 rush yds · 3 TD · 7 rec
#15 RB
WR
Matt Fogler
13 rec · 231 yds · 3 TD
#52 WR
DB
Tymir Wynn
14 tkl · 4 PD · 1 INT
#160 DB
Villanova Wildcats
LB
Omari Bursey
34 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 4.5 TFL
#9 LB
DL
Ugo Nwotite
6 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#82 DL
DL
Ratu Delano Navoti
5 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL
#137 DL
DB
Jamie Tyson
17 tkl · 1 INT
#166 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Colgate offense vs Villanova defense-3.7 pts
Villanova offense vs Colgate defense-1.7 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-1.9 pts
Power projection before adjustment+4.8
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).